Texas State at Oregon State - 2026 Matchup Preview
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Texas State Bobcats at Oregon State Beavers

Oregon State logo
Saturday, November 7th 2026 (12:00 PM EST)
Reser Stadium - Corvallis, OR  (Pac-12)

 
Bobcats (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (23 - 16)
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (34 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.8 - 4.2 (#57)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 4)
TXST 2nd straight Road Game
TXST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Texas State -1.5  (SP+ TXST -0.5)

Projected Score: TXST: 29 - ORST: 27 (56)
TXST Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
TXST Travel: 1712 miles, 2 hrs ahead
Beavers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach JaMarcus Shephard (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 18 - 29 (22 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.8 - 7.2 (#97)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 4)
 
Texas State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Texas State at Texas+29
Sat 9/12Texas State vs UTSA-1
Sat 9/19Texas State vs North Texas-8
Sat 9/26Texas State vs Incarnate Word-21.5
Sat 10/3Texas State at San Diego State+5.5
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/17Texas State vs Colorado State-9
Sat 10/24Texas State vs Utah State-8.5
Sat 10/31Texas State at Boise State+9.5
Sat 11/7Texas State at Oregon State-1.5
Sat 11/14Texas State vs Fresno State-0
Sat 11/21Texas State vs Washington State-5.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule
Oregon State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Oregon State at Houston+17
Sat 9/12Oregon State vs Texas Tech+28.5
Sat 9/19Oregon State vs Montana-17
Sat 9/26Oregon State at UTEP-9.5
Sat 10/3Oregon State at Colorado State+0
Sat 10/10Oregon State vs San Diego State+4.5
Sat 10/17Oregon State vs Washington State-1.5
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/31Oregon State at Fresno State+9
Sat 11/7Oregon State vs Texas State+1.5
Sat 11/14Oregon State at Boise State+14
Sat 11/21Oregon State vs Utah State-4

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oregon State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TXST#6 (.33)46% (24)36.546% (43)3.13 (34)22347% (25)2514.42 (21)#76 (.18)41% (61)2940% (48)43% (87)3.98 (98)59.51.30.9
ORST#124 (.05)42% (68)17.644% (67)2.82 (89)12742% (68)2252.89 (128)#77 (.18)38% (25)29.441% (51)36% (18)3.41 (46)49.91.70.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TXST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ORST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TXST Offense1336.534.246.3%4.421.3234742232515.256%42%46%47%12%.33
ORST Defense1229.425.338.3%3.410.8 - - - - - 49%49%41%36%17%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TXST Defense132932.841.2%3.980.9 - - - - - 52%46%40%43%16%.18
ORST Offense1217.621.742.3%2.891.7203531272253.846%52%44%42%16%.05

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Texas State1329:1022.946%60%6.959.51.30.97.21.9227.4
Oregon State1231:5220.436%40%5.949.91.70.85.31.3028.3
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TXST Offense1356% (22)46% (43)42.9222.75.236 (4).28 (7)3.13 (34)67% (102)9% (42)1.15 (10)
ORST Defense1249% (59)41% (51) - - - - .07 (52)2.6 (17)68% (43)10% (57)0.94 (57)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TXST Defense1352% (101)40% (48) - - - - .08 (58)2.67 (25)70% (58)11% (25)1.06 (110)
ORST Offense1246% (98)44% (67)33.9127.33.815 (60).01 (120)2.82 (89)77% (30)9% (61)0.73 (135)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TXST Offense1342% (115)47% (25)19.527.8250.8912.921 (86)7 (7).42 (17)1.6 (31)29% (29)38% (9).54 (6)4% (10)2 (71)
ORST Defense1249% (81)36% (18) - - - - - - 8 (55).31 (98)2 (136)33% (44)29% (69).44 (126)7% (15)2.5 (136)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TXST Defense1346% (44)43% (87) - - - - - - 9 (123).3 (89)1.6 (97)33% (42)32% (98).28 (64)5% (114)1.9 (30)
ORST Offense1252% (36)42% (68)21.735.9225.46.310.414 (61)13 (127).11 (123)1.3 (133)31% (68)28% (96).05 (131)7% (110)1.7 (134)

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: 1.49  #58
Texas State's Offense Rating: 17.81  #45
Texas State's Defense Rating: 16.33  #78
2026 Talent Rating: 586.00  #85
Blue Chip Ratio: 4%  #60
Texas State's 2026 Expected Record: 6.8 - 4.2
Texas State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.9  #89
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.8  #26
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.8  #129

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 597.13
Average Power Five Talent: 872.28
Average FBS Talent: 677.28

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State: 1.49   Oregon State: -3.945

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -5.9   Oregon State: -6.3




Oregon State's Power Ratings
Oregon State's Power Rating: -3.945  #106
Oregon State's Offense Rating: 12.97  #99
Oregon State's Defense Rating: 19.56  #110
2026 Talent Rating: 620.00  #78
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #69
Oregon State's 2026 Expected Record: 3.8 - 7.2
Oregon State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.3  #91
Oregon State's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.9  #104
Oregon State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5  #74

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 597.13
Average Power Five Talent: 872.28
Average FBS Talent: 677.28


Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.2
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Texas State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Texas State 29
Oregon State 27


Projected Total Points: 56
Oregon State Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.7
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.3

Oregon State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Oregon State000 Overs
Texas State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#58) TXST at (#106) ORST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTXSTORST
Game ControlGC #22 #130
Momentum ControlMC #35 #99
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #58 #106
SP+SP+ #89 #91
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #85 #78
Blue ChipsBC% #60 #69
Texas State Notes
(3/1) Vibes: Off should be great, can Def improve?
(3/1) New DC Will Windham (S Al's DC, awful LY)?
(3/1) QB Brad Jackson back, was good LY, very mobile
(3/1) RB Burrell back, but depth behind him has 0 car
(3/1) WR Sparks + Dawn both 1K LY, top G5 duo?
(3/1) OL has 2 starters, 3 portals and lots of ? beyond
(3/1) DL 6 portals, not much returns, not sure here
(3/1) DB 6 w starting exp, 6 portals, best Def unit
(3/1) LY won last 3 to bowl, Def awful in 5 gm L streak
Texas State Injury Report
Oregon State Notes
(3/1) Vibes: Shephard is crootin & building best he can
(3/1) QB Atkinson (Mercer) a big add, can sling it
(3/1) RB not much here, not much exp. Who emerges?
(3/1) WR McDaniel (w/ QB), TE Olsen big target
(3/1) OL eh.. not great. 3 portals, 2 are starters
(3/1) Def lots of FCS adds, LB/DE mix, DL has ?
(3/1) Pass rush concerns, need FCS hits
(3/1) CBs look good, Safeties very inexp'd.
(2/2) Reset w/ Shephard in new P12 after Brey fired
(2/2) Special Teams were a disaster in '25, must fix
Oregon State Injury Report
Texas State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
TXST OffORST Def
Game ControlGC #18 #128
Momentum ControlMC #16 #100
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #24 #25
ExplosiveExp #16 #133
PPAPPA #6 #77
PowerPwr #45 #110
SP+SP+ #26 #74
Pts POPPO #21 #46
HavocHav #15 #36
Texas State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
TXST OffORST Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #43 #51
Run ExplRExp #10 #57
PPAExp #7 #52
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #34 #17
Stuff RateStuff #36 #22
TackleTak - NR
Texas State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
TXST OffORST Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #25 #18
Pass ExplPExl #31 #136
PPAExp #17 #98
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #42 #57
DB HavocDB #10 #15
Oregon State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatORST OffTXST Def
Game ControlGC #129 #28
Momentum ControlMC #85 #60
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #68 #61
ExplosiveExp #135 #110
PPAPPA #124 #76
PowerPwr #99 #78
SP+SP+ #104 #129
Pts POPPO #128 #98
HavocHav #89 #67
Oregon State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
ORST OffTXST Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #67 #48
Run ExplRExp #135 #110
PPAExp #120 #58
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #89 #25
Stuff RateStuff #24 #10
TackleTak - NR
Oregon State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatORST OffTXST Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #68 #87
Pass ExplPExl #133 #97
PPAExp #123 #89
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #61 #25
DB HavocDB #110 #114
Program Comparison
ORST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'26 Profile: Remains Average G5

TXST 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'26 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Reser Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
TXST's OC Landon Keopple (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brad Jackson25135271%32232179.2
Shaker Reisig (Tr)101953%141127.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Brad Jackson174744174.363
Greg Burrell10067136.761
Jaylen Jenkins3117025.558
Torrance Burgess Jr.209514.811
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Beau Sparks8412001014.373
Chris Dawn Jr.651007415.582
Kylen Evans15211114.145
Greg Burrell1312509.623

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Will Windham (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ryan Nolan723022
Ayden Jones521020
Terrence Cooks II465121
Amarion Atwood292023
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Donterry Russell186401
Terrence Cooks II465121
Chancellor Owens (Tr)21100
DJ Jackson40000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dexter Ricks Jr. (Tr)181004
Amarion Atwood292023
Ryan Nolan723022

ORST's OC Mitch Dahlen (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Braden Atkinson (Tr)26840766%361134118.9
Maalik Murphy16027658%1802986.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cornell Hatcher Jr.5229225.642
AJ Newberry (Tr)185733.216
Xayvion Noland (Tr)255027.552
Eric Olsen (Tr)73104.48
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Xayvion Noland (Tr)37776721.076
Adonis McDaniel (Tr)52676613.056
Eric Olsen (Tr)51566211.149
Gabe Milbourn17185110.926

View Oregon State's Full Roster

ORST's DC Mike MacIntyre (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aiden Sullivan727151
Takari Hickle385250
Sailasa Vadrawale311015
Tyree Blake292001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Takari Hickle385250
Jacob Schuster142202
Aiden Sullivan727151
Jaylen Hill21101
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trey Glasper232005
Sailasa Vadrawale311015
Jacob Schuster142202