San Diego State at Oregon State - 2026 Matchup Preview
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San Diego State Aztecs at Oregon State Beavers

Oregon State logo
Saturday, October 10th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Reser Stadium - Corvallis, OR  (Pac-12)

 
Aztecs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Sean Lewis (12 - 13)
Avg Score : 26 - 15 (18 - 18 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 3.6 (#48)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 4)
ORST is playing their 6th straight game
SDSU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: San Diego State -4.5  (SP+ SDSU -5)

Projected Score: SDSU: 24 - ORST: 20 (44)
SDSU Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
SDSU Travel: 878 miles
Beavers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach JaMarcus Shephard (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 18 - 29 (22 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.8 - 7.2 (#97)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 4)
 
San Diego State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5San Diego State vs Portland State-24
Sat 9/12San Diego State at UCLA+7.5
Sat 9/19San Diego State vs James Madison-5
Sat 9/26San Diego State at Toledo-4
Sat 10/3San Diego State vs Texas State-5.5
Sat 10/10San Diego State at Oregon State-4.5
Sat 10/17San Diego State vs Fresno State-3
Sat 10/24San Diego State at Colorado State-7
Sat 10/31San Diego State vs Washington State-8.5
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/14San Diego State vs Utah State-11
Sat 11/21San Diego State at Boise State+7

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule
Oregon State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Oregon State at Houston+17
Sat 9/12Oregon State vs Texas Tech+28.5
Sat 9/19Oregon State vs Montana-17
Sat 9/26Oregon State at UTEP-9.5
Sat 10/3Oregon State at Colorado State+0
Sat 10/10Oregon State vs San Diego State+4.5
Sat 10/17Oregon State vs Washington State-1.5
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/31Oregon State at Fresno State+9
Sat 11/7Oregon State vs Texas State+1.5
Sat 11/14Oregon State at Boise State+14
Sat 11/21Oregon State vs Utah State-4

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oregon State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SDSU#93 (.13)42% (76)26.446% (40)3.34 (10)19936% (121)1583.51 (90)#4 (-.01)35% (10)15.438% (24)33% (4)2.42 (3)55.91.21.4
ORST#124 (.05)42% (68)17.644% (67)2.82 (89)12742% (68)2252.89 (128)#77 (.18)38% (25)29.441% (51)36% (18)3.41 (46)49.91.70.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SDSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ORST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SDSU Offense1326.418.241.8%3.511.2183561991584.861%37%46%36%13%.13
ORST Defense1229.425.338.3%3.410.8 - - - - - 49%49%41%36%17%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SDSU Defense1315.418.335.1%2.421.4 - - - - - 48%50%38%33%15%-.01
ORST Offense1217.621.742.3%2.891.7203531272253.846%52%44%42%16%.05

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
San Diego State1330:1717.931%52%6.255.91.21.44.82.5531.7
Oregon State1231:5220.436%40%5.949.91.70.85.31.3028.3
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SDSU Offense1361% (9)46% (40)41.8198.94.825 (70).17 (43)3.34 (10)80% (16)7% (22)0.9 (94)
ORST Defense1249% (59)41% (51) - - - - .07 (52)2.6 (17)68% (43)10% (57)0.94 (57)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SDSU Defense1348% (46)38% (24) - - - - .06 (43)3.04 (99)63% (15)8% (113)0.96 (70)
ORST Offense1246% (98)44% (67)33.9127.33.815 (60).01 (120)2.82 (89)77% (30)9% (61)0.73 (135)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SDSU Offense1337% (128)36% (121)12.822.3157.97.112.410 (106)10 (7).09 (127)1.7 (20)30% (41)20% (136).04 (132)6% (48)1.9 (88)
ORST Defense1249% (81)36% (18) - - - - - - 8 (55).31 (98)2 (136)33% (44)29% (69).44 (126)7% (15)2.5 (136)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SDSU Defense1350% (90)33% (4) - - - - - - 15 (55)-.04 (2)1.4 (16)35% (17)23% (6).06 (3)7% (22)1.8 (14)
ORST Offense1252% (36)42% (68)21.735.9225.46.310.414 (61)13 (127).11 (123)1.3 (133)31% (68)28% (96).05 (131)7% (110)1.7 (134)

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: 2.62  #54
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 15.62  #70
San Diego State's Defense Rating: 13.00  #44
2026 Talent Rating: 651.00  #70
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #104
San Diego State's 2026 Expected Record: 7.4 - 3.6
San Diego State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.3  #71
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.1  #93
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.0  #58

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 597.13
Average Power Five Talent: 872.28
Average FBS Talent: 677.28

Power Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: 2.62   Oregon State: -3.945

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: -1.3   Oregon State: -6.3




Oregon State's Power Ratings
Oregon State's Power Rating: -3.945  #106
Oregon State's Offense Rating: 12.97  #99
Oregon State's Defense Rating: 19.56  #110
2026 Talent Rating: 620.00  #78
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #69
Oregon State's 2026 Expected Record: 3.8 - 7.2
Oregon State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.3  #91
Oregon State's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.9  #104
Oregon State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5  #74

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 597.13
Average Power Five Talent: 872.28
Average FBS Talent: 677.28


San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 26.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.2
Defense: 15.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 18.3

San Diego State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
San Diego State 24
Oregon State 20


Projected Total Points: 44
Oregon State Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.7
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.3

Oregon State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/07San Diego State0Oregon State21Oregon State -5.5Oregon State54.5Under
202309/16Oregon State26San Diego State9Oregon State -24.5San Diego State48.5Under
201409/20Oregon State28San Diego State7Oregon State -8.5Oregon State0
201309/21San Diego State30Oregon State34Oregon State -8San Diego State0
200009/22Oregon State35San Diego State3
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Oregon State520 Overs
San Diego State022 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 22 - 21 - 11 - 1
Road Teams2 - 32 - 21 - 11 - 1

(#54) SDSU at (#106) ORST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSDSUORST
Game ControlGC #13 #130
Momentum ControlMC #37 #99
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #54 #106
SP+SP+ #71 #91
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #70 #78
Blue ChipsBC% #104 #69
San Diego State Notes
(3/8) Vibes: Lewis era rising, NIL funding is up
(3/1) QB Denegal back but he ain't it. Depth overtake?
(3/1) RB Sutton great (1.3K) very good depth. Strong
(3/1) WR 3 portals, Napier good/back, have options
(3/1) OL 6 portals, 5 fair to good starters, have depth
(3/1) DL has avg prod but good rotation of 6 exp'd guys
(3/1) LB replacing nearly all from a great Def LY
(3/1) DBs 7 portals, some really prod FCS adds.
(3/1) New DC Sumler (DB LY) has big shoes to fill
San Diego State Injury Report
Oregon State Notes
(3/1) Vibes: Shephard is crootin & building best he can
(3/1) QB Atkinson (Mercer) a big add, can sling it
(3/1) RB not much here, not much exp. Who emerges?
(3/1) WR McDaniel (w/ QB), TE Olsen big target
(3/1) OL eh.. not great. 3 portals, 2 are starters
(3/1) Def lots of FCS adds, LB/DE mix, DL has ?
(3/1) Pass rush concerns, need FCS hits
(3/1) CBs look good, Safeties very inexp'd.
(2/2) Reset w/ Shephard in new P12 after Brey fired
(2/2) Special Teams were a disaster in '25, must fix
Oregon State Injury Report
San Diego State on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat
SDSU OffORST Def
Game ControlGC #11 #128
Momentum ControlMC #78 #100
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #76 #25
ExplosiveExp #112 #133
PPAPPA #93 #77
PowerPwr #70 #110
SP+SP+ #93 #74
Pts POPPO #90 #46
HavocHav #25 #36
San Diego State Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat
SDSU OffORST Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #40 #51
Run ExplRExp #94 #57
PPAExp #43 #52
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #10 #17
Stuff RateStuff #14 #22
TackleTak - NR
San Diego State Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat
SDSU OffORST Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #121 #18
Pass ExplPExl #20 #136
PPAExp #127 #98
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #22 #57
DB HavocDB #48 #15
Oregon State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatORST OffSDSU Def
Game ControlGC #129 #25
Momentum ControlMC #85 #11
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #68 #10
ExplosiveExp #135 #23
PPAPPA #124 #4
PowerPwr #99 #44
SP+SP+ #104 #58
Pts POPPO #128 #3
HavocHav #89 #78
Oregon State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
ORST OffSDSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #67 #24
Run ExplRExp #135 #70
PPAExp #120 #43
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #89 #99
Stuff RateStuff #24 #109
TackleTak - NR
Oregon State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatORST OffSDSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #68 #4
Pass ExplPExl #133 #16
PPAExp #123 #2
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #61 #113
DB HavocDB #110 #22
Program Comparison
ORST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'26 Profile: Remains Average G5

SDSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Reser Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Oregon State beat San Diego State in 2024 (21-0)
Oregon State beat San Diego State in 2023 (26-9)

  
SDSU's OC Sean Lewis (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jayden Denegal14324459%1810987.4
Bert Emanuel Jr.91656%74004.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lucky Sutton2531292105.150
Christian Washington9756045.841
Bert Emanuel Jr.3227328.572
Jayden Denegal6710341.529
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Napier48632213.280
Aldrich Doe (Tr)37467212.635
Javion Kinnard (Tr)18228112.779
Nathan Acevedo16190011.942

View San Diego State's Full Roster

SDSU's DC Demetrius Sumler (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jalen Thomeson (Tr)867021
Dalesean Staley701008
Tano Letuli270021
Amari Comier193111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Djibril Abdou Rahman (Tr)51111
Amari Comier193111
Kai Wallin (Tr)172141
Solomon Davis (Tr)61100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dalesean Staley701008
Brady Nassar140043
Krishna Clay151011

ORST's OC Mitch Dahlen (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Braden Atkinson (Tr)26840766%361134118.9
Maalik Murphy16027658%1802986.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cornell Hatcher Jr.5229225.642
AJ Newberry (Tr)185733.216
Xayvion Noland (Tr)255027.552
Eric Olsen (Tr)73104.48
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Xayvion Noland (Tr)37776721.076
Adonis McDaniel (Tr)52676613.056
Eric Olsen (Tr)51566211.149
Gabe Milbourn17185110.926

View Oregon State's Full Roster

ORST's DC Mike MacIntyre (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aiden Sullivan727151
Takari Hickle385250
Sailasa Vadrawale311015
Tyree Blake292001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Takari Hickle385250
Jacob Schuster142202
Aiden Sullivan727151
Jaylen Hill21101
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trey Glasper232005
Sailasa Vadrawale311015
Jacob Schuster142202