Boise State at Western Michigan - 2026 Matchup Preview
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Boise State Broncos at Western Michigan Broncos

Western Michigan logo
Saturday, September 26th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Waldo Stadium - Kalamazoo, MI

 
Broncos (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Spencer Danielson (24 - 8)
Avg Score : 30 - 24 (20 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.1 - 3.9 (#50)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 5)
WMU is playing their 4th straight game
BSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Boise State -9  (SP+ BSU -14)

Projected Score: BSU: 28 - WMU: 19 (47)
BSU Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
BSU Travel: 1541 miles, 2 hrs behind
Broncos (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Lance Taylor (20 - 19)
Avg Score : 25 - 17 (29 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.1 - 4.9 (#50)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 8)
 
Boise State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Boise State at Oregon+23.5
Sat 9/12Boise State vs Memphis-6.5
Sat 9/19Boise State vs South Dakota-28
Sat 9/26Boise State at Western Michigan-9
Sat 10/3Boise State vs Utah State-15.5
Sat 10/10Boise State at Fresno State-2.5
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/24Boise State at Washington State-8
Sat 10/31Boise State vs Texas State-9.5
Sat 11/7Boise State at Colorado State-11.5
Sat 11/14Boise State vs Oregon State-14
Sat 11/21Boise State vs San Diego State-7

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule
Western Michigan's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Western Michigan at Michigan+26
Sat 9/12Western Michigan vs Monmouth-17
Sat 9/19Western Michigan at Rice-7
Sat 9/26Western Michigan vs Boise State+9
Sat 10/3Western Michigan at Buffalo-2.5
Sat 10/10Western Michigan vs Kent State-14.5
Sat 10/17Western Michigan at Central Michigan+0.5
Sat 10/24Western Michigan at Toledo+3
Sat 10/31Western Michigan vs Bowling Green-7.5
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/10Western Michigan at Akron-6.5
Tue 11/17Western Michigan vs Eastern Michigan-8
Tue 11/24Western Michigan vs Miami (OH)+3

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Western Michigan's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BSU#44 (.2)42% (77)29.943% (80)3.11 (39)17941% (83)2453.66 (73)#53 (.12)36% (14)24.141% (50)33% (6)4.14 (111)59.41.51.6
WMU#103 (.12)43% (55)24.947% (31)3.18 (25)20537% (116)1393.35 (105)#16 (.06)37% (17)17.438% (21)37% (21)2.83 (13)40.11.11.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
WMU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BSU Offense1429.919.841.8%3.661.5224241792454.651%47%43%41%14%.2
WMU Defense1417.415.736.9%2.831.7 - - - - - 49%49%38%37%17%.06
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BSU Defense1424.123.836.5%4.141.6 - - - - - 52%46%41%33%17%.12
WMU Offense1424.92943.4%3.351.1193432051394.665%33%47%37%12%.12

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Boise State1432:5022.146%51%6.959.41.51.662330.6
Western Michigan1432:3418.940%44%4.640.11.11.75.93.1232
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BSU Offense1451% (51)43% (80)39.3179.44.629 (30).16 (46)3.11 (39)79% (22)8% (33)1 (55)
WMU Defense1449% (56)38% (21) - - - - .06 (46)2.77 (48)73% (86)11% (17)1.02 (98)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BSU Defense1452% (93)41% (50) - - - - .2 (120)2.98 (88)67% (39)11% (28)1.22 (134)
WMU Offense1465% (5)47% (31)44.2204.54.631 (49).14 (57)3.18 (25)76% (38)9% (61)0.9 (97)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BSU Offense1447% (83)41% (83)19.633.7244.97.312.523 (22)14 (88).27 (62)1.6 (43)33% (91)31% (58).28 (74)6% (65)1.8 (124)
WMU Defense1449% (75)37% (21) - - - - - - 12 (55).1 (11)1.5 (28)34% (23)28% (54).12 (12)6% (67)1.7 (6)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BSU Defense1446% (45)33% (6) - - - - - - 14 (22).08 (7)1.7 (116)37% (4)28% (49).22 (33)6% (81)2.1 (87)
WMU Offense1433% (132)37% (116)13.221.8138.56.410.510 (114)6 (34).1 (125)1.4 (120)30% (44)24% (128).15 (121)3% (7)1.9 (103)

Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 3.26  #50
Boise State's Offense Rating: 18.08  #41
Boise State's Defense Rating: 14.83  #61
2026 Talent Rating: 644.00  #72
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #104
Boise State's 2026 Expected Record: 7.1 - 3.9
Boise State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.8  #39
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.9  #43
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.8  #45

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 597.13
Average Power Five Talent: 872.28
Average FBS Talent: 677.28

Power Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 3.26   Western Michigan: -3.895

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 6.8   Western Michigan: -7.2




Western Michigan's Power Ratings
Western Michigan's Power Rating: -3.895  #103
Western Michigan's Offense Rating: 14.47  #84
Western Michigan's Defense Rating: 20.06  #112
2026 Talent Rating: 440.00  #117
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #83
Western Michigan's 2026 Expected Record: 7.1 - 4.9
Western Michigan's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.2  #95
Western Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.0  #112
Western Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.8  #67

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 467.85
Average Power Five Talent: 872.28
Average FBS Talent: 677.28


Boise State Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.8
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.8

Boise State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Boise State 28
Western Michigan 19


Projected Total Points: 47
Western Michigan Scoring
Offense: 24.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 17.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.7

Western Michigan's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Western Michigan000 Overs
Boise State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#50) BSU at (#103) WMU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBSUWMU
Game ControlGC #81 #60
Momentum ControlMC #65 #66
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #50 #103
SP+SP+ #39 #95
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #72 #117
Blue ChipsBC% #104 #83
Boise State Notes
(3/1) Vibes: Good, schedule is tougher + new Pac 12
(3/1) RB duo of Riley & Gaines one of CFBs best
(3/1) WR rebuild Bates & Ford have exp, Morris portal
(3/1) OL inconsistent LY, returns 3, have depth. Decent
(3/1) DL good G5, Virgin-Morgan an AA, have depth
(3/1) DB portal focus, added 4, should good again
(3/1) Playing Oregon, Memphis & S Dakota OOC.
(3/1) QB Madsen a 2 yr starter, has his OC back TY
Boise State Injury Report
Western Michigan Notes
(3/27) Vibes: 10 wins LY big, Off fine, Def looks rough
(3/27) QB Lowry is back, a mobile threat. Good/Productive
(3/27) RB Buckley (1K LY) back, Green (Ark) fun add?
(3/27) WR meh, nothing here of note, some experience
(3/27) OL has 3 starters back, 1 portal add from Mich
(3/27) DL/LB is light on size & experience. Not a lot here
(3/27) DBs strength of Def by far, good prod/exp
(3/26) Def F7 rebuild, new DC. Expect a drop off
(2/6) Elevated Greer Martini (LB) to DC (O'Leary->NFL)
Western Michigan Injury Report
Boise State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
BSU OffWMU Def
Game ControlGC #105 #57
Momentum ControlMC #100 #31
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #77 #17
ExplosiveExp #47 #66
PPAPPA #44 #16
PowerPwr #41 #112
SP+SP+ #43 #67
Pts POPPO #73 #13
HavocHav #49 #33
Boise State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
BSU OffWMU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #80 #21
Run ExplRExp #55 #98
PPAExp #46 #46
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #39 #48
Stuff RateStuff #33 #96
TackleTak - NR
Boise State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
BSU OffWMU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #83 #21
Pass ExplPExl #43 #28
PPAExp #62 #11
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #33 #17
DB HavocDB #65 #67
Western Michigan on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 65%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCatWMU OffBSU Def
Game ControlGC #66 #52
Momentum ControlMC #110 #32
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #55 #14
ExplosiveExp #136 #129
PPAPPA #103 #53
PowerPwr #84 #61
SP+SP+ #112 #45
Pts POPPO #105 #111
HavocHav #18 #50
Western Michigan Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 65%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCat
WMU OffBSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #31 #50
Run ExplRExp #97 #134
PPAExp #57 #120
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #25 #88
Stuff RateStuff #30 #61
TackleTak - NR
Western Michigan Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 65%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCatWMU OffBSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #116 #6
Pass ExplPExl #120 #116
PPAExp #125 #7
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #61 #28
DB HavocDB #7 #81
Program Comparison
WMU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'26 Profile: Remains Average G5

BSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Waldo Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
BSU's OC Nate Potter (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maddux Madsen17630258%23331897.7
Max Cutforth9516757%1059456.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dylan Riley1951125105.877
Sire Gaines16181285.046
Juelz Goff (Tr)6927053.917
Harry Stewart III (Tr)219814.715
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Darren Morris (Tr)27508418.871
Ben Ford21325515.560
Cameron Bates18307117.144
Matt Wagner23246110.728

View Boise State's Full Roster

BSU's DC Erik Chinander (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Boen Phelps664150
Jayden Virgin56136120
Jake Ripp433030
JeRico Washington Jr. (Tr)4321010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Virgin56136120
Sterling Lane63310
Boen Phelps664150
Lopez Sanusi131100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
JeRico Washington Jr. (Tr)4321010
Sherrod Smith141006
Jaden Mickey387115

WMU's OC Walt Bell (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Broc Lowry16626263%1803936.9
Ofa Mataele010%0000.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jalen Buckley179100395.667
Broc Lowry203963144.737
Ofa Mataele5725234.422
Aveion Chenault335011.725
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Nathan Levicki33478614.575
Baylin Brooks27372013.842
Aveion Chenault23277212.045
Jalen Buckley127516.334

View Western Michigan's Full Roster

WMU's DC Greer Martini (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jarvarius Sims612104
Micah Davis601023
Joshua Franklin5362110
Joey Pope443112
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
DeJuan Echoles276422
Joshua Franklin5362110
Jarvarius Sims612104
Dakari Frazier101100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Joshua Franklin5362110
Jarvarius Sims612104
John Peters140004