Arkansas State at TCU - 2026 Matchup Preview

Arkansas State Red Wolves at TCU Horned Frogs

Saturday, September 19th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Amon G. Carter Stadium - Fort Worth, TX

Red Wolves (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (26 - 37)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (21 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 0.1 - 1.9 (#136)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)

TCU 3rd straight Home Game
ARST coming off BYE
Our Line: TCU -23.5 (SP+ TCU -17)
Projected Score: ARST: 15 - TCU: 38 (53)
TCU Win prob: 96% | Cover: 54%
ARST Travel: 440 miles

Horned Frogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (36 - 17)
Avg Score : 31 - 25 (36 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 4.5 (#47)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 4) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 3)

Matchup
Schedules
ARST Players
TCU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas State's 2026 Schedule

Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Arkansas State at Memphis	+21.5	—	—	—	—
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/19	Arkansas State at TCU	+23.5	—	—	—	—

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule

TCU's 2026 Schedule

Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/29	TCU vs North Carolina	-7.5	50.5	—	—	—
Sat 9/12	TCU vs Grambling	-29	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/19	TCU vs Arkansas State	-23.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/26	TCU at UCF	-3.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/3	TCU vs BYU	+3	—	—	—	—
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/17	TCU at Baylor	-2.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/24	TCU vs West Virginia	-12.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/31	TCU vs Kansas	-8	—	—	—	—
Sat 11/7	TCU at Arizona	+6	—	—	—	—
Sat 11/14	TCU vs Kansas State	-3.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 11/21	TCU vs Utah	-0	—	—	—	—
Sat 11/28	TCU at Texas Tech	+22.5	—	—	—	—

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for TCU's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	#111 (.09)	42% (71)	25.2	40% (101)	2.65 (119)	124	44% (47)	260	3.31 (110)	#89 (.19)	43% (92)	27.4	44% (83)	44% (98)	3.9 (89)	57.8	1.8	1.3
TCU	#36 (.21)	44% (48)	30.7	43% (79)	2.7 (113)	132	47% (24)	290	4.14 (34)	#59 (.15)	40% (53)	25.3	38% (23)	43% (86)	3.49 (54)	62	1.5	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TCU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Offense	13	25.2	21	42%	3.31	1.8	22	383	124	260	3.6	42%	56%	40%	44%	18%	.09
TCU Defense	13	25.3	24.2	40.3%	3.49	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	48%	50%	38%	43%	15%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Defense	13	27.4	21.8	43.4%	3.9	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	52%	46%	44%	44%	16%	.19
TCU Offense	13	30.7	36	44.3%	4.14	1.5	22	422	132	290	4	45%	53%	43%	47%	15%	.21

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas State	13	29:31	22.2	39%	60%	6.3	57.8	1.8	1.3	6.2	3	3	30.4
TCU	13	28:51	22.2	47%	64%	6.8	62	1.5	1.6	5.2	1.8	1	30

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Offense	13	42% (123)	40% (101)	34.5	123.5	3.6	14 (107)	-.01 (125)	2.65 (119)	70% (80)	10% (91)	0.8 (126)
TCU Defense	13	48% (51)	38% (23)	-	-	-	-	.06 (44)	2.84 (58)	68% (48)	9% (84)	0.88 (26)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Defense	13	52% (96)	44% (83)	-	-	-	-	.12 (82)	2.75 (44)	69% (49)	11% (40)	1.01 (95)
TCU Offense	13	45% (104)	43% (79)	33.3	131.8	4	20 (60)	.04 (109)	2.7 (113)	77% (35)	9% (71)	0.83 (121)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Offense	13	56% (13)	44% (47)	25.7	39.1	259.8	6.7	10.1	20 (86)	12 (60)	.21 (86)	1.4 (123)	30% (45)	28% (86)	.27 (83)	8% (125)	2.1 (28)
TCU Defense	13	50% (85)	43% (86)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (22)	.3 (92)	1.7 (111)	32% (66)	32% (94)	.35 (96)	6% (75)	2.1 (102)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Defense	13	46% (46)	44% (98)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (75)	.31 (100)	1.6 (89)	30% (88)	32% (97)	.42 (118)	5% (108)	2.2 (119)
TCU Offense	13	53% (34)	47% (24)	23.5	35.4	290.1	8.2	12.3	30 (3)	15 (108)	.41 (20)	1.6 (35)	33% (89)	34% (23)	.45 (20)	6% (72)	2.1 (26)

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -18.06 #132
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 6.27 #131
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 24.32 #131
2026 Talent Rating: 323.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #104
Arkansas State's 2026 Expected Record: 0.1 - 1.9
Arkansas State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.8 #101
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #90
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #111

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 466.92
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.61

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -18.06 TCU: 9.93

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -8.8 TCU: 8.3

TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 9.93 #36
TCU's Offense Rating: 17.90 #43
TCU's Defense Rating: 11.34 #34
2026 Talent Rating: 849.00 #34
Blue Chip Ratio: 999 #1
TCU's 2026 Expected Record: 7.5 - 4.5
TCU's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.3 #36
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.9 #30
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.9 #50

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 766.38
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.61

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.8

Arkansas State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
TCU 38
Arkansas State 15

Projected Total Points: 53

TCU Scoring
Offense: 30.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

TCU's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2000	09/22	TCU	52	Arkansas State	3

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
TCU	1	0	0 Overs
Arkansas State	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0

(#132) ARST at (#36) TCU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARST	TCU
Game ControlGC	#100	#17
Momentum ControlMC	#58	#29
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#132	#36
SP+SP+	#101	#36
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#131	#34
Blue ChipsBC%	#104	#1

Arkansas State Notes(2/24) Three straight bowls under Jones, decent job
(2/24) QB1? portals Owens (Tex) vs St-Hilaire (Vandy)
(2/24) RB Jolly (Utep) has exp, missed LY. Depth huge ?
(2/24) WR six players, 5 are true freshman? Must add
(2/24) Current official roster lacking a ton. Revisit
Arkansas State Injury Report

TCU Notes(3/17) Vibes: Shaky, fans souring on Dykes? Tough.
(3/17) WR has parts w #2 Dwyer back & depth options
(3/17) OL has parts, 4 FT, 2 PT guys w starting exp
(3/17) DTs are OK, DE's look average. Pass Rush ?
(3/17) LBs lack in exp & real options, need depth to hit
(3/17) DBs took 3 portals to help bad Pass Def. Good exp
(2/12) New OC Sammis was really good @ UConn
(2/3) QB Craig (Harvard) 24 starts bypassed NFL draft
(2/3) RB Payne good find LY, depth looks thin and ?
TCU Injury Report

Arkansas State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	ARST Off	TCU Def
Game ControlGC	#96	#27
Momentum ControlMC	#63	#33
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#71	#53
ExplosiveExp	#127	#92
PPAPPA	#111	#59
PowerPwr	#131	#34
SP+SP+	#90	#50
Pts POPPO	#110	#54
HavocHav	#111	#86

Arkansas State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	ARST Off	TCU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#101	#23
Run ExplRExp	#126	#26
PPAExp	#125	#44
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#119	#58
Stuff RateStuff	#111	#95
TackleTak	-	NR

Arkansas State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	ARST Off	TCU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#47	#86
Pass ExplPExl	#123	#111
PPAExp	#86	#92
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#91	#84
DB HavocDB	#125	#75

TCU on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TCU Off	ARST Def
Game ControlGC	#14	#97
Momentum ControlMC	#36	#46
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#48	#92
ExplosiveExp	#46	#93
PPAPPA	#36	#89
PowerPwr	#43	#131
SP+SP+	#30	#111
Pts POPPO	#34	#89
HavocHav	#64	#72

TCU Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TCU Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#79	#83
Run ExplRExp	#121	#95
PPAExp	#109	#82
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#113	#44
Stuff RateStuff	#114	#64
TackleTak	-	NR

TCU Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TCU Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#24	#98
Pass ExplPExl	#35	#89
PPAExp	#20	#100
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#71	#40
DB HavocDB	#72	#108

Program Comparison
TCU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'26 Profile: Remains Average P4

ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Amon G. Carter Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

No Matchups Past 4 Years

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Drew Dickey (Tr)	1	2	50%	28	0	0	14.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Drew Dickey (Tr)	3	13	1	4.3	9
Joshua Burrell (Tr)	1	4	0	4.0	4

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Joshua Burrell (Tr)	36	290	2	8.1	29
Makai Shahid (Tr)	1	21	0	21.0	21

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Griffin McCarley (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Shakai Woods (Tr)	48	7	3	3	1
Five Hamilton (Tr)	38	2	0	0	2
Noah Flores	26	1	1	0	2
Makai Shahid (Tr)	6	0	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Shakai Woods (Tr)	48	7	3	3	1
Tyeland Coleman (Tr)	2	1	1	0	0
Noah Flores	26	1	1	0	2
Sultan Badmus (Tr)	5	1	1	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Five Hamilton (Tr)	38	2	0	0	2
Noah Flores	26	1	1	0	2
Shakai Woods (Tr)	48	7	3	3	1

TCU's OC Gordon Sammis (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaden Craig (Tr)	204	331	62%	2829	25	7	8.5
John Hoyet Chance	0	1	0%	0	0	0	0.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jeremy Payne	110	623	5	5.7	51
Jon Denman	50	178	3	3.6	16
Jaden Craig (Tr)	48	78	3	1.6	26
Major Everhart	5	7	0	1.4	11

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Dwyer	54	730	7	13.5	69
Jeremy Scott (Tr)	24	417	4	17.4	74
Jeremy Payne	22	207	2	9.4	44
Ed Small	16	186	2	11.6	41

View TCU's Full Roster

TCU's DC Andy Avalos (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jamel Johnson	96	3	0	3
Jacob Fields (Tr)	90	3	1	5
Kalen Carroll (Tr)	49	2	1	4
Vernon Glover	41	1	0	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kylin Jackson	26	5	3	2	1
Koron Hayward (Tr)	19	4	3	2	1
Paul Oyewale	31	8	2	2	0
Ansel Din-Mbuh	24	7	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Vernon Glover	41	1	0	6
Jacob Fields (Tr)	90	3	1	5
Kalen Carroll (Tr)	49	2	1	4