Momentum Control Rankings — 2016 College Football | Punt & Rally
2016 Momentum Control Rankings

Opponent-adjusted Consecutive Scoring Sequences — 128 FBS teams — 2016 season

85.6%
Win Rate — CSS Leader
74.1%
Win Rate — TO Leader
92.9%
Win Rate — Lead Both
58.2%
Win Rate — TO Only
Momentum Control measures consecutive scoring sequences (CSS) — when a team scores, forces a stop, then scores again — opponent-adjusted for schedule strength. Teams that win the Momentum Control battle win 85.6% of FBS games (2016–2025, 5,485 games). That makes it the single most predictive game-outcome metric in college football. CSS Off measures sequences created. CSS Def measures sequences allowed (lower is better). CSS Net is the difference — the primary ranking metric.
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# Team Conf G Opponent-Adjusted Raw CSS Win%
CSS Off CSS Def ↓ CSS Net ▼ Off/G Def/G ↓
1 Michigan B1G 13 1.57 0 +1.57 2.39 0 80%
2 Alabama SEC 14 1.5 0.17 +1.33 1.86 0.21 100%
3 Western Michigan MAC 13 1.66 0.39 +1.27 2 0.31 100%
4 Air Force MWC 11 1.2 0 +1.2 1.46 0 87.5%
5 Washington B1G 13 1.75 0.68 +1.07 2.39 0.54 100%
6 Houston B12 12 1.78 0.81 +0.98 2 0.83 100%
7 Louisville ACC 13 2.56 1.62 +0.94 2.85 1.08 77.8%
8 Tulsa AAC 12 1.8 0.94 +0.86 2.17 0.83 87.5%
9 Ohio State B1G 13 1.26 0.45 +0.81 2.31 0.31 100%
10 Temple AAC 13 1.45 0.65 +0.79 1.77 0.54 100%
11 North Carolina ACC 11 1.58 0.83 +0.75 1.73 0.73 71.4%
12 BYU B12 11 1.17 0.43 +0.74 1.27 0.36 71.4%
13 Oklahoma State B12 12 1.63 0.99 +0.64 1.75 0.67 88.9%
14 Wisconsin B1G 14 1.17 0.53 +0.63 1.5 0.43 90%
15 Boise State PAC 13 1.17 0.56 +0.61 1.54 0.54 100%
16 Kansas State B12 12 1.12 0.52 +0.6 1.33 0.33 87.5%
17 Tennessee SEC 13 1.17 0.57 +0.6 1.39 0.62 100%
18 Oklahoma SEC 13 1.66 1.11 +0.55 2 1 100%
19 Clemson ACC 14 1.24 0.71 +0.53 1.64 0.57 100%
20 Virginia Tech ACC 14 1.68 1.21 +0.47 1.86 1 100%
21 Florida State ACC 13 1.53 1.06 +0.46 1.85 0.69 100%
22 Miami ACC 12 1.52 1.08 +0.45 1.58 0.75 100%
23 Washington State PAC 12 1.23 0.8 +0.43 1.92 0.5 100%
24 LSU SEC 12 0.99 0.57 +0.42 1.17 0.42 100%
25 USC B1G 13 1.44 1.06 +0.38 1.77 0.77 100%
26 Northwestern B1G 12 0.7 0.42 +0.28 0.92 0.42 100%
27 Ohio MAC 14 0.76 0.49 +0.28 1.21 0.36 62.5%
28 TCU B12 12 1.57 1.3 +0.27 1.5 0.92 80%
29 Vanderbilt SEC 13 0.7 0.49 +0.21 0.62 0.46 75%
30 Penn State B1G 14 1.6 1.39 +0.2 1.93 1 100%
31 Middle Tennessee CUSA 12 1.49 1.31 +0.18 1.58 1.33 100%
32 Colorado B12 12 0.8 0.67 +0.13 1.33 0.58 100%
33 Navy AAC 13 1.11 1 +0.11 1.54 0.85 83.3%
34 Louisiana Tech CUSA 13 1.46 1.37 +0.09 2.15 0.92 87.5%
35 Western Kentucky CUSA 13 1.24 1.15 +0.09 2.15 0.69 100%
36 Notre Dame Ind 12 1.22 1.14 +0.08 1.42 0.92 75%
37 Memphis AAC 13 1.18 1.1 +0.08 1.92 0.77 87.5%
38 San Diego State PAC 13 1.31 1.25 +0.06 1.54 0.85 100%
39 Georgia SEC 12 0.75 0.75 0 0.67 0.67 0%
40 Texas SEC 12 0.97 0.98 -0.01 1.17 0.75 80%
41 Auburn SEC 12 0.88 0.91 -0.03 1.67 0.67 100%
42 Indiana B1G 13 0.58 0.7 -0.12 0.77 0.62 100%
43 Wyoming MWC 12 1.06 1.22 -0.15 1.08 1.33 80%
44 Troy SBC 11 0.66 0.82 -0.17 1.55 0.64 100%
45 Minnesota B1G 12 0.49 0.68 -0.2 0.67 0.42 100%
46 Duke ACC 10 0.65 0.85 -0.21 0.6 0.8 33.3%
47 Utah B12 12 1.1 1.32 -0.22 0.92 1.08 100%
48 Georgia Tech ACC 12 0.75 0.97 -0.23 1 0.92 100%
49 Toledo MAC 11 0.88 1.12 -0.24 1.36 0.91 100%
50 Stanford ACC 13 0.93 1.17 -0.24 1.15 0.77 100%
51 Iowa B1G 12 0.73 1 -0.27 1.08 0.92 80%
52 Pittsburgh ACC 12 1.21 1.55 -0.33 1.17 1.33 100%
53 Colorado State PAC 11 1.05 1.42 -0.37 1.36 1.46 100%
54 Arkansas SEC 12 0.9 1.31 -0.41 0.92 1.25 75%
55 California ACC 12 1.3 1.72 -0.42 1.42 1.42 75%
56 Eastern Michigan MAC 12 0.97 1.39 -0.42 1 1.25 80%
57 Wake Forest ACC 12 1 1.43 -0.43 0.75 0.92 50%
58 West Virginia B12 12 1.44 1.87 -0.43 1.58 1.42 100%
59 Miami (OH) MAC 13 0.63 1.07 -0.44 0.54 0.85 100%
60 UTSA AAC 11 0.47 0.93 -0.46 0.64 0.73 100%
61 Georgia Southern SBC 11 0.75 1.27 -0.52 0.91 1.09 75%
62 South Florida AAC 11 1.2 1.77 -0.57 1.46 1.46 100%
63 Georgia State SBC 12 0.63 1.21 -0.58 0.92 1 100%
64 Texas A&M SEC 12 0.65 1.23 -0.58 0.58 0.92 100%
65 Tulane AAC 11 0.46 1.1 -0.64 0.73 0.91 66.7%
66 App State SBC 12 0.7 1.35 -0.65 1.33 0.58 100%
67 Texas Tech B12 11 0.91 1.57 -0.65 1.09 1.73 100%
68 Ole Miss SEC 11 0.98 1.63 -0.66 1 1.55 80%
69 Missouri SEC 11 0.48 1.15 -0.67 0.73 1.18 100%
70 New Mexico State CUSA 11 0.22 0.98 -0.76 0.64 1.09 100%
71 Southern Miss SBC 12 1.22 1.98 -0.76 1.5 1.42 100%
72 Ball State MAC 12 0.81 1.6 -0.79 1.25 1.17 60%
73 Nebraska B1G 13 0.66 1.5 -0.84 1.23 1.08 100%
74 Florida SEC 13 0.41 1.25 -0.84 0.77 0.69 100%
75 Louisiana SBC 12 0.39 1.25 -0.86 0.58 0.67 40%
76 New Mexico MWC 12 1.03 1.92 -0.89 1.42 1.5 100%
77 Oregon State PAC 11 0.51 1.42 -0.91 0.73 1.36 100%
78 Cincinnati B12 12 0.38 1.29 -0.91 0.5 1 50%
79 NC State ACC 12 0.47 1.44 -0.97 0.67 1.08 100%
80 Baylor B12 12 0.69 1.66 -0.97 0.92 1.42 100%
81 South Carolina SEC 12 0.22 1.2 -0.97 0.5 0.83 100%
82 Utah State PAC 11 0.42 1.47 -1.05 0.82 1.27 50%
83 Buffalo MAC 11 0.5 1.56 -1.06 0.64 1.55 50%
84 UCLA B1G 12 0.5 1.59 -1.1 0.75 1.25 66.7%
85 Army AAC 10 0.29 1.4 -1.1 0.9 0.9 100%
86 Virginia ACC 11 0.45 1.56 -1.11 0.82 1.46 100%
87 South Alabama SBC 12 0.33 1.44 -1.11 0.42 1.17 100%
88 Iowa State B12 11 0.81 1.93 -1.12 1.27 1.73 100%
89 Arizona State B12 11 1.07 2.23 -1.16 1.18 1.82 80%
90 UCF B12 11 0.73 1.95 -1.22 1 1.09 100%
91 Mississippi State SEC 12 0.61 1.85 -1.24 0.75 1.17 80%
92 Kentucky SEC 13 0.42 1.66 -1.24 1 1.23 100%
93 Northern Illinois MWC 11 0.51 1.76 -1.25 0.55 1.09 100%
94 UConn Ind 11 0.49 1.82 -1.33 0.55 1.73 0%
95 North Texas AAC 12 0.4 1.77 -1.37 0.42 1.42 100%
96 Michigan State B1G 11 0.43 1.8 -1.37 0.55 1.55 100%
97 SMU ACC 12 0.58 1.96 -1.37 0.75 1.58 75%
98 Hawai'i MWC 14 0.48 1.87 -1.38 0.86 1.36 75%
99 San José State MWC 11 0.35 1.76 -1.41 0.55 1.55 100%
100 Idaho 10 0.6 2.05 -1.45 1.1 0.9 100%
101 Oregon B1G 11 1.08 2.53 -1.45 1.55 2 75%
102 East Carolina AAC 11 0.78 2.23 -1.46 0.82 1.82 66.7%
103 Fresno State PAC 11 0.67 2.13 -1.47 0.64 1.82 —
104 Purdue B1G 12 0.6 2.16 -1.56 0.75 1.67 100%
105 Syracuse ACC 11 0.5 2.08 -1.58 0.55 1.64 100%
106 Old Dominion SBC 11 0.8 2.38 -1.58 1.36 1.18 100%
107 Nevada MWC 10 0.33 1.94 -1.61 0.8 1.2 100%
108 Florida Atlantic AAC 10 0.3 1.94 -1.64 0.6 1.7 100%
109 Florida International CUSA 12 0.61 2.29 -1.68 0.92 1.67 75%
110 Central Michigan MAC 13 0.36 2.09 -1.74 0.54 1.77 100%
111 Massachusetts MAC 11 0.4 2.13 -1.74 0.55 2 0%
112 Arizona B12 9 0.23 2.08 -1.85 0.67 2.22 100%
113 UTEP MWC 10 0.27 2.15 -1.88 0.5 2 100%
114 Arkansas State SBC 12 0.29 2.18 -1.89 0.83 1 75%
115 Illinois B1G 12 0.25 2.16 -1.91 0.67 1.58 100%
116 UNLV MWC 11 0.43 2.4 -1.97 0.73 1.91 100%
117 Kansas B12 11 0.31 2.3 -1.99 0.36 2.18 0%
118 Maryland B1G 12 0.21 2.21 -2 0.42 1.25 100%
119 Boston College ACC 12 0.16 2.17 -2.01 0.58 1.25 75%
120 Marshall SBC 10 0.57 2.68 -2.11 0.8 1.6 33.3%
121 Kent State MAC 11 0.18 2.49 -2.3 0.64 1.36 66.7%
122 Akron MAC 11 0.57 2.93 -2.37 0.73 2.27 66.7%
123 Rice AAC 11 0.12 2.66 -2.54 0.55 1.73 50%
124 UL Monroe SBC 11 0.49 3.24 -2.76 0.82 2.27 100%
125 Texas State PAC 11 0.04 2.98 -2.94 0.09 2.91 —
126 Bowling Green MAC 10 0.4 3.64 -3.24 0.7 1.9 100%
127 Charlotte AAC 10 0.43 3.78 -3.35 0.7 1.9 66.7%
128 Rutgers B1G 11 0.29 3.75 -3.46 0.46 2.64 100%