Momentum Control Rankings — 2023 College Football | Punt & Rally
2023 Momentum Control Rankings

Opponent-adjusted Consecutive Scoring Sequences — 133 FBS teams — 2023 season

85.6%
Win Rate — CSS Leader
74.1%
Win Rate — TO Leader
92.9%
Win Rate — Lead Both
58.2%
Win Rate — TO Only
Momentum Control measures consecutive scoring sequences (CSS) — when a team scores, forces a stop, then scores again — opponent-adjusted for schedule strength. Teams that win the Momentum Control battle win 85.6% of FBS games (2016–2025, 5,485 games). That makes it the single most predictive game-outcome metric in college football. CSS Off measures sequences created. CSS Def measures sequences allowed (lower is better). CSS Net is the difference — the primary ranking metric.
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# Team Conf G Opponent-Adjusted Raw CSS Win%
CSS Off CSS Def ↓ CSS Net ▲ Off/G Def/G ↓
1 UL Monroe SBC 11 0.45 3.41 -2.95 0.64 2.91 50%
2 Temple AAC 11 0.16 2.86 -2.7 0.36 2.27 100%
3 Indiana B1G 11 0 2.54 -2.54 0 1.64 —
4 Hawai'i MWC 12 0.23 2.75 -2.52 0.33 1.58 100%
5 Massachusetts MAC 11 0.28 2.59 -2.31 0.36 2 100%
6 Kent State MAC 11 0.27 2.43 -2.16 0.36 2.27 —
7 New Mexico MWC 11 0.43 2.56 -2.13 0.82 1.82 75%
8 Michigan State B1G 11 0.24 2.3 -2.05 0.55 1.64 33.3%
9 UConn Ind 11 0.08 2.04 -1.95 0.27 1.55 100%
10 Ball State MAC 11 0.17 2.12 -1.94 0.55 1.09 100%
11 Nevada MWC 11 0.15 2.09 -1.94 0.36 1.82 100%
12 Southern Miss SBC 11 0.54 2.44 -1.9 0.82 2.09 50%
13 Eastern Michigan MAC 12 0.32 2.22 -1.9 0.33 1.08 100%
14 Georgia Southern SBC 12 0.51 2.4 -1.88 1.17 1.58 80%
15 Florida International CUSA 11 0.21 2.07 -1.86 0.27 1.64 100%
16 Georgia State SBC 12 0.51 2.34 -1.83 1.08 1.5 100%
17 Navy AAC 11 0.23 2.02 -1.79 0.46 1.18 100%
18 Tulsa AAC 11 0.49 2.25 -1.76 1.09 1.64 66.7%
19 Arizona State B12 11 0.35 2.09 -1.75 0.27 1.73 0%
20 Middle Tennessee CUSA 11 0.21 1.95 -1.74 0.46 1.09 66.7%
21 Arkansas State SBC 12 0.56 2.3 -1.74 1.25 1.42 100%
22 Stanford ACC 11 0.67 2.4 -1.72 1 1.91 50%
23 Charlotte AAC 11 0.64 2.32 -1.69 0.64 1.91 0%
24 Vanderbilt SEC 11 0.54 2.22 -1.68 0.64 1.73 0%
25 Army AAC 10 0.74 2.41 -1.67 0.6 1.5 66.7%
26 UAB AAC 11 0.71 2.36 -1.65 1.09 1.91 66.7%
27 Kentucky SEC 12 0.58 2.21 -1.63 0.83 1.42 100%
28 California ACC 12 0.64 2.24 -1.6 0.75 1.58 66.7%
29 Cincinnati B12 11 0.19 1.74 -1.55 0.27 1.46 100%
30 Utah State PAC 12 0.69 2.17 -1.48 0.75 1.42 100%
31 East Carolina AAC 11 0.28 1.76 -1.48 0.55 1.18 100%
32 Syracuse ACC 12 0.44 1.9 -1.46 0.92 1.25 100%
33 Western Michigan MAC 11 0.3 1.72 -1.42 0.55 1.46 100%
34 Mississippi State SEC 11 0.25 1.66 -1.41 0.55 1.18 75%
35 Boston College ACC 12 0.33 1.64 -1.32 0.5 1.17 100%
36 Nebraska B1G 12 0.38 1.67 -1.3 0.5 1 75%
37 Central Michigan MAC 11 0.42 1.71 -1.3 0.64 1.18 100%
38 TCU B12 11 0.73 2.02 -1.29 0.82 1.36 100%
39 Buffalo MAC 11 0.34 1.62 -1.28 0.46 1.18 50%
40 Akron MAC 11 0.15 1.4 -1.26 0.36 1.18 50%
41 Washington State PAC 11 0.27 1.47 -1.2 0.36 1.09 50%
42 Florida SEC 11 0.78 1.98 -1.2 1.09 1.36 80%
43 UNLV MWC 13 0.94 2.1 -1.15 1.69 1.69 100%
44 North Texas AAC 11 0.83 1.92 -1.09 1.18 1.27 60%
45 Western Kentucky CUSA 12 0.4 1.48 -1.08 0.83 0.92 100%
46 UTEP MWC 11 0.27 1.33 -1.06 0.46 1.18 100%
47 Minnesota B1G 13 0.36 1.4 -1.04 0.62 0.77 66.7%
48 Wake Forest ACC 11 0.11 1.15 -1.04 0.36 0.73 100%
49 Purdue B1G 12 0.5 1.5 -1.01 0.58 1 100%
50 Illinois B1G 12 0.65 1.65 -1 0.83 1.33 66.7%
51 Tennessee SEC 12 0.67 1.66 -0.99 1.08 1.17 100%
52 Iowa B1G 14 0.36 1.3 -0.94 0.57 0.64 100%
53 Maryland B1G 12 0.71 1.65 -0.94 1.33 1.17 100%
54 Louisiana Tech CUSA 11 0.31 1.25 -0.93 0.46 1 50%
55 Texas Tech B12 12 0.51 1.44 -0.92 0.58 1.08 100%
56 Baylor B12 11 0.7 1.62 -0.92 0.91 1.27 50%
57 Wyoming MWC 12 0.78 1.7 -0.91 1.25 1.33 100%
58 Pittsburgh ACC 11 0.35 1.25 -0.91 0.46 1 66.7%
59 Rice AAC 12 0.39 1.29 -0.9 0.75 1 60%
60 Florida Atlantic AAC 11 0.32 1.22 -0.9 0.64 1 100%
61 Rutgers B1G 12 0.52 1.34 -0.82 0.83 1.17 50%
62 New Mexico State CUSA 14 0.85 1.67 -0.82 1.07 1 100%
63 Auburn SEC 12 0.62 1.43 -0.81 0.92 1 75%
64 San Diego State PAC 11 0.48 1.26 -0.78 0.64 0.91 100%
65 Marshall SBC 12 0.65 1.43 -0.78 0.83 1.33 75%
66 Bowling Green MAC 12 0.36 1.12 -0.76 1.17 0.58 83.3%
67 Arkansas SEC 11 0.99 1.75 -0.76 1.09 1.55 100%
68 Colorado B12 12 0.58 1.32 -0.74 1 1.17 100%
69 Coastal Carolina SBC 12 0.55 1.26 -0.71 0.67 0.83 100%
70 UTSA AAC 13 0.73 1.43 -0.71 0.85 0.69 100%
71 Houston B12 12 0.57 1.25 -0.68 0.42 1 0%
72 South Carolina SEC 11 0.66 1.28 -0.62 0.91 1.09 100%
73 BYU B12 11 0.37 0.96 -0.58 0.46 1 100%
74 UCF B12 12 1.05 1.63 -0.58 1.08 1.33 75%
75 Duke ACC 12 0.76 1.3 -0.54 0.92 0.92 100%
76 Liberty CUSA 14 1.28 1.81 -0.54 1.71 0.64 100%
77 USC B1G 13 0.77 1.28 -0.51 1.15 0.92 80%
78 Miami (OH) MAC 13 0.56 1.07 -0.51 1 0.54 100%
79 Colorado State PAC 11 1.12 1.59 -0.47 1 1.36 100%
80 Sam Houston CUSA 11 0.47 0.9 -0.43 0.46 0.91 0%
81 West Virginia B12 12 0.95 1.33 -0.38 1.33 1 100%
82 South Florida AAC 12 0.45 0.72 -0.27 1 1 100%
83 Virginia ACC 11 0.73 1 -0.27 0.64 1.09 25%
84 Oklahoma State B12 13 0.98 1.23 -0.25 1.23 1.08 100%
85 Louisiana SBC 12 0.62 0.86 -0.24 1.17 1 100%
86 Oregon State PAC 12 0.86 1.08 -0.22 1.42 0.75 87.5%
87 Georgia Tech ACC 12 1.45 1.66 -0.21 1.5 1.5 100%
88 Northern Illinois MWC 12 0.6 0.8 -0.2 0.75 0.83 100%
89 NC State ACC 12 0.75 0.94 -0.19 0.75 0.75 100%
90 Old Dominion SBC 12 0.61 0.79 -0.18 0.67 0.83 80%
91 Northwestern B1G 12 0.82 0.99 -0.17 1.08 0.67 100%
92 Ohio MAC 12 0.82 0.94 -0.13 1.08 0.67 100%
93 Jacksonville State CUSA 12 0.79 0.9 -0.11 1.25 0.75 83.3%
94 San José State MWC 12 1.28 1.38 -0.1 1.5 1.08 71.4%
95 Tulane AAC 13 1.05 1.14 -0.09 1.08 1.08 100%
96 Texas State PAC 12 0.98 1.06 -0.07 1.25 1.08 75%
97 Iowa State B12 12 1.01 1.06 -0.05 1.25 0.83 100%
98 Utah B12 12 0.69 0.73 -0.04 1.17 0.5 100%
99 App State SBC 13 0.71 0.72 -0 0.85 0.77 83.3%
100 Miami ACC 12 1.27 1.22 +0.05 1.42 1 80%
101 Wisconsin B1G 13 0.61 0.56 +0.05 0.92 0.46 71.4%
102 LSU SEC 12 1.62 1.57 +0.05 2.5 1 100%
103 SMU ACC 13 1.03 0.94 +0.09 2.08 0.54 100%
104 Kansas B12 12 1.32 1.23 +0.09 1.58 0.92 71.4%
105 Ole Miss SEC 12 1.22 1.12 +0.1 1.67 0.75 100%
106 Missouri SEC 12 1.17 1.06 +0.11 1.25 0.92 100%
107 Virginia Tech ACC 13 1.48 1.36 +0.12 1.54 0.77 87.5%
108 UCLA B1G 12 0.87 0.74 +0.13 0.92 0.58 100%
109 North Carolina ACC 12 1.37 1.24 +0.14 1.42 1.08 100%
110 Florida State ACC 13 1.95 1.78 +0.17 2.23 1 100%
111 Kansas State B12 12 1.34 1.14 +0.2 1.42 0.83 100%
112 Boise State PAC 13 1.52 1.29 +0.24 1.92 1 100%
113 Troy SBC 13 0.82 0.57 +0.24 1.15 0.39 100%
114 Ohio State B1G 12 0.98 0.64 +0.34 1.58 0.5 100%
115 Penn State B1G 12 1.19 0.78 +0.42 2 0.42 100%
116 Memphis AAC 12 1.49 1.05 +0.44 1.42 1.08 50%
117 Clemson ACC 12 0.77 0.32 +0.45 0.75 0.25 80%
118 Fresno State PAC 12 1.4 0.93 +0.47 1.58 0.92 100%
119 Toledo MAC 13 1.03 0.5 +0.53 1.39 0.54 83.3%
120 Washington B1G 15 1.3 0.76 +0.54 1.47 0.6 100%
121 South Alabama SBC 12 1.46 0.83 +0.63 2.33 0.67 83.3%
122 Louisville ACC 13 1.4 0.74 +0.65 1.46 0.69 100%
123 Oklahoma SEC 13 1.71 0.99 +0.73 2.15 0.77 100%
124 James Madison SBC 12 1.32 0.58 +0.74 1.75 0.58 100%
125 Texas A&M SEC 12 1.51 0.73 +0.78 2.17 0.5 83.3%
126 Notre Dame Ind 12 1.23 0.45 +0.78 1.83 0.33 88.9%
127 Alabama SEC 13 1.47 0.64 +0.83 1.69 0.62 100%
128 Arizona B12 12 1.57 0.6 +0.97 1.58 0.5 83.3%
129 Air Force MWC 12 1.61 0.57 +1.04 1.58 0.58 85.7%
130 Texas SEC 14 1.93 0.7 +1.23 1.93 0.57 100%
131 Michigan B1G 15 1.49 0.02 +1.46 2.13 0.07 100%
132 Oregon B1G 13 2.3 0.57 +1.73 3 0.46 91.7%
133 Georgia SEC 13 2.97 0.42 +2.54 3 0.31 100%