Momentum Control Rankings — 2018 College Football | Punt & Rally
2018 Momentum Control Rankings

Opponent-adjusted Consecutive Scoring Sequences — 130 FBS teams — 2018 season

85.6%
Win Rate — CSS Leader
74.1%
Win Rate — TO Leader
92.9%
Win Rate — Lead Both
58.2%
Win Rate — TO Only
Momentum Control measures consecutive scoring sequences (CSS) — when a team scores, forces a stop, then scores again — opponent-adjusted for schedule strength. Teams that win the Momentum Control battle win 85.6% of FBS games (2016–2025, 5,485 games). That makes it the single most predictive game-outcome metric in college football. CSS Off measures sequences created. CSS Def measures sequences allowed (lower is better). CSS Net is the difference — the primary ranking metric.
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# Team Conf G Opponent-Adjusted Raw CSS Win%
CSS Off CSS Def ↓ CSS Net ▲ Off/G Def/G ↓
1 UConn Ind 11 0.16 4.27 -4.11 0.27 3.82 —
2 New Mexico State CUSA 11 0.32 3.33 -3.02 0.55 2.09 50%
3 South Alabama SBC 11 0.3 3.14 -2.83 0.46 2.46 100%
4 Georgia State SBC 12 0.1 2.91 -2.82 0.33 2.5 100%
5 Massachusetts MAC 11 0.34 3.12 -2.78 0.73 2.09 100%
6 UL Monroe SBC 11 0.71 3.37 -2.66 1.18 2 80%
7 Louisville ACC 11 0.12 2.77 -2.65 0.27 2.64 0%
8 New Mexico MWC 11 0.43 2.94 -2.51 0.91 2 100%
9 Western Michigan MAC 12 0.62 3.07 -2.45 1.08 1.92 100%
10 Illinois B1G 11 0.46 2.74 -2.28 0.73 2.18 100%
11 Bowling Green MAC 12 0.63 2.9 -2.27 0.67 2 66.7%
12 UTSA AAC 12 0.12 2.38 -2.27 0.33 1.83 100%
13 East Carolina AAC 11 0.44 2.71 -2.26 0.82 2 100%
14 Louisiana SBC 13 0.7 2.9 -2.2 1.46 1.77 100%
15 Liberty CUSA 10 0.62 2.75 -2.13 1.4 1.8 66.7%
16 UNLV MWC 11 0.47 2.59 -2.12 0.73 2.36 66.7%
17 Arkansas State SBC 13 0.15 2.13 -1.98 0.92 0.77 100%
18 Rice AAC 12 0.45 2.37 -1.92 0.42 2.08 —
19 Oregon State PAC 11 0.69 2.6 -1.91 0.73 2.27 100%
20 Florida State ACC 11 0.41 2.18 -1.78 0.55 1.55 66.7%
21 Tennessee SEC 11 0.08 1.83 -1.75 0.09 1.36 100%
22 Arkansas SEC 12 0.42 2.06 -1.64 0.83 1.83 66.7%
23 Baylor B12 12 0.56 2.16 -1.61 0.92 1.58 100%
24 Kansas B12 11 0.16 1.74 -1.58 0.46 1.46 100%
25 Georgia Tech ACC 12 0.81 2.34 -1.53 1.33 1.5 100%
26 South Carolina SEC 12 0.72 2.23 -1.51 0.83 1.58 100%
27 Rutgers B1G 12 0.13 1.56 -1.43 0.25 1.5 50%
28 Louisiana Tech CUSA 12 0.45 1.84 -1.4 0.67 0.75 83.3%
29 UCLA B1G 12 0.68 2.05 -1.38 0.75 1.83 100%
30 Kent State MAC 11 0.79 2.16 -1.37 0.91 1.64 0%
31 Hawai'i MWC 13 0.46 1.83 -1.37 0.77 1.31 100%
32 Ball State MAC 11 0.16 1.52 -1.37 0.46 1.55 50%
33 San José State MWC 11 0.32 1.68 -1.36 0.73 1.36 25%
34 Wyoming MWC 11 0.2 1.55 -1.36 0.46 0.91 100%
35 Houston B12 12 1.04 2.37 -1.33 1.5 2.17 100%
36 Vanderbilt SEC 13 0.5 1.82 -1.32 0.92 1.31 100%
37 Central Michigan MAC 11 0.45 1.66 -1.21 0.64 1.36 0%
38 Colorado State PAC 11 0.66 1.85 -1.19 0.73 1.82 50%
39 Coastal Carolina SBC 12 0.74 1.91 -1.17 1.25 1.58 100%
40 Ole Miss SEC 11 0.98 2.14 -1.16 1.91 1.46 60%
41 Navy AAC 12 0.51 1.59 -1.07 0.75 1.42 66.7%
42 SMU ACC 11 0.38 1.4 -1.03 0.64 1.09 66.7%
43 Georgia Southern SBC 12 0.64 1.63 -0.99 1.33 0.83 100%
44 BYU B12 12 0.58 1.51 -0.93 1.08 1.08 100%
45 Wake Forest ACC 12 0.68 1.58 -0.91 1.08 1.08 100%
46 Western Kentucky CUSA 11 0.21 1.09 -0.88 0.73 0.91 100%
47 Miami ACC 12 0.62 1.46 -0.84 0.67 1.17 100%
48 Marshall SBC 13 0.64 1.48 -0.83 0.92 1 100%
49 Northern Illinois MWC 14 0.32 1.13 -0.81 0.43 1.29 —
50 Florida Atlantic AAC 10 0.9 1.7 -0.8 1.2 1 100%
51 Colorado B12 11 0.52 1.29 -0.77 0.82 1.09 100%
52 Kansas State B12 11 0.55 1.31 -0.76 0.82 1 66.7%
53 UTEP MWC 11 0.23 0.95 -0.73 0.46 1.27 50%
54 Middle Tennessee CUSA 14 0.71 1.44 -0.73 1 0.93 100%
55 USC B1G 12 0.36 1.08 -0.72 0.75 1.08 100%
56 Purdue B1G 13 0.73 1.44 -0.71 0.85 1.08 100%
57 Texas State PAC 11 0.18 0.88 -0.7 0.55 0.91 50%
58 Indiana B1G 12 0.83 1.47 -0.64 1.08 1.17 75%
59 Maryland B1G 12 0.58 1.21 -0.63 1.25 1.17 80%
60 Akron MAC 11 0.38 0.93 -0.55 0.46 1.09 0%
61 Auburn SEC 12 0.66 1.18 -0.53 1.08 0.67 100%
62 South Florida AAC 11 0.65 1.17 -0.52 1.09 0.91 100%
63 Nebraska B1G 11 0.84 1.34 -0.5 0.82 1.18 75%
64 Tulane AAC 11 0.67 1.12 -0.45 0.73 0.91 100%
65 TCU B12 12 0.43 0.87 -0.44 0.25 0.75 —
66 Charlotte AAC 10 0.25 0.69 -0.44 0.5 0.8 100%
67 Stanford ACC 12 0.71 1.15 -0.44 1.08 1 100%
68 Tulsa AAC 11 0.82 1.25 -0.43 1.18 1.27 50%
69 Eastern Michigan MAC 13 0.67 1.09 -0.42 0.85 0.77 100%
70 Virginia Tech ACC 12 0.65 0.99 -0.34 0.5 1 100%
71 Buffalo MAC 13 1.02 1.36 -0.34 1.39 0.92 88.9%
72 Arizona B12 11 1.05 1.38 -0.33 1.27 1.18 80%
73 Pittsburgh ACC 13 0.62 0.95 -0.33 0.92 0.92 100%
74 Florida International CUSA 12 0.77 1.04 -0.28 1.17 0.67 83.3%
75 Troy SBC 12 1.06 1.33 -0.28 1.5 0.67 100%
76 Cincinnati B12 12 0.66 0.92 -0.25 1.42 0.58 100%
77 Temple AAC 12 1 1.25 -0.25 1.25 0.92 100%
78 Oregon B1G 12 0.87 1.08 -0.21 1.08 0.92 75%
79 California ACC 12 0.42 0.62 -0.2 0.5 0.67 100%
80 UCF B12 12 1.6 1.8 -0.2 2.25 1 100%
81 UAB AAC 13 0.89 1.08 -0.19 1.39 0.77 100%
82 Michigan State B1G 13 0.34 0.51 -0.17 0.54 0.62 100%
83 Nevada MWC 12 0.7 0.87 -0.17 1.08 0.83 50%
84 San Diego State PAC 12 0.41 0.57 -0.16 0.58 0.92 66.7%
85 Southern Miss SBC 10 0.36 0.48 -0.13 1.1 0.4 80%
86 Mississippi State SEC 12 0.71 0.82 -0.11 1.42 0.67 100%
87 Kentucky SEC 13 0.73 0.82 -0.09 1.31 0.62 100%
88 Northwestern B1G 14 0.99 1.08 -0.09 0.93 1 75%
89 Boston College ACC 11 0.72 0.76 -0.04 1 0.64 80%
90 Texas Tech B12 11 0.99 1.03 -0.04 1 0.91 75%
91 Old Dominion SBC 11 1.54 1.57 -0.04 1.09 1.64 75%
92 Miami (OH) MAC 12 0.58 0.62 -0.03 1.17 0.67 100%
93 Missouri SEC 13 1.13 1.14 -0.01 1.77 0.85 87.5%
94 Duke ACC 12 1.15 1.15 0 1.25 0.92 100%
95 Oklahoma State B12 12 1.05 1.02 +0.03 1.42 0.92 75%
96 NC State ACC 12 1.43 1.39 +0.04 2.17 0.83 85.7%
97 Virginia ACC 12 0.58 0.54 +0.05 0.83 0.5 80%
98 North Texas AAC 12 1.28 1.22 +0.06 1.92 0.92 100%
99 West Virginia B12 11 1.15 1.08 +0.07 1.46 1 100%
100 Arizona State B12 13 1.14 1.04 +0.1 1.39 0.92 85.7%
101 North Carolina ACC 10 0.67 0.55 +0.12 0.8 0.7 33.3%
102 Wisconsin B1G 13 0.84 0.69 +0.15 1.15 0.54 100%
103 Michigan B1G 13 1.03 0.86 +0.17 1.46 0.62 100%
104 Toledo MAC 12 1.38 1.21 +0.18 1.58 1 66.7%
105 Texas A&M SEC 12 0.97 0.79 +0.18 1.42 0.67 85.7%
106 Fresno State PAC 13 0.85 0.63 +0.22 1.39 0.46 100%
107 Florida SEC 12 0.99 0.71 +0.27 1.75 0.5 87.5%
108 Penn State B1G 13 0.97 0.68 +0.28 1.54 0.46 100%
109 Minnesota B1G 13 1.02 0.74 +0.29 1.15 0.85 80%
110 Washington B1G 13 0.59 0.29 +0.3 0.85 0.23 100%
111 Air Force MWC 11 0.97 0.65 +0.31 1.09 0.46 50%
112 Memphis AAC 13 2.13 1.77 +0.36 2.31 1 87.5%
113 Iowa State B12 13 0.88 0.45 +0.43 0.92 0.39 83.3%
114 Ohio State B1G 14 0.98 0.55 +0.43 1.36 0.57 100%
115 Texas SEC 14 1.33 0.85 +0.48 1.14 0.64 87.5%
116 Utah State PAC 13 1.46 0.95 +0.51 2.85 0.54 100%
117 Boise State PAC 13 1.12 0.61 +0.52 1.77 0.54 100%
118 Syracuse ACC 12 1.56 1.03 +0.53 2.08 0.67 80%
119 App State SBC 13 1.14 0.58 +0.56 1.54 0.31 100%
120 Washington State PAC 12 1.31 0.66 +0.66 1.58 0.58 87.5%
121 Iowa B1G 12 0.96 0.29 +0.67 1 0.17 75%
122 Oklahoma SEC 14 1.97 1.24 +0.73 2.14 0.79 100%
123 Army AAC 11 1.35 0.56 +0.79 1.82 0.55 100%
124 Georgia SEC 14 1.41 0.62 +0.8 2.14 0.43 100%
125 Notre Dame Ind 13 1.31 0.37 +0.94 1.54 0.31 100%
126 Ohio MAC 12 1.85 0.91 +0.94 2.42 0.67 85.7%
127 Utah B12 13 1.62 0.52 +1.1 1.85 0.54 77.8%
128 Alabama SEC 14 2.13 0.7 +1.43 2.57 0.5 100%
129 LSU SEC 12 1.73 0.27 +1.45 2 0.25 100%
130 Clemson ACC 14 2.26 0.38 +1.88 2.36 0.29 100%