Arkansas State Composite Control — 2025 | Punt & Rally
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Arkansas State
2025 Composite Control — Game Control + Momentum Control
2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021
Composite Score
52.4
Composite Rank: #81  •  6–6 (FBS games)
GC Score
36.2
#100 in FBS
GC Net
-23.8
Raw GC Net
GC Off
23.6
SOS-Adj Offense
GC Allowed
47.4
Avg Allowed ↓
MC Score
68.6
#58 in FBS
MC Net
-0.28
Raw MC Net
MC Off
0.69
Adj. Sequences
MC Win%
80%
When winning MC
MC > GC by 32 points. Arkansas State generated strong consecutive scoring sequences (Momentum Control score: 68.6) but spent more time in contested win probability territory than their sequence count suggests (Game Control score: 36.2). This profile suggests a team that delivers explosive scoring runs but also plays in close, contested games.
Game Control Game-by-Game Win Probability Log
Wk Opponent Result GC Scores Avg WP% Ctrl% Never Trailed
GC Off GC Allowed GC Net
1 Southeast Missouri State H — 73.8 8.3 +65.6 82.3% 74.4% —
2 Arkansas N L 14–56 3.6 95.4 -91.8 8.9% 0% —
3 Iowa State H L 16–24 16.9 52.2 -35.3 38.2% 0.7% —
4 Kennesaw State A L 21–28 3.8 94 -90.2 9.4% 0% —
5 UL Monroe A L 16–28 40.8 46.9 -6.1 45.5% 38.7% —
6 Texas State H W 31–30 22 41.6 -19.6 44.9% 6.4% —
8 South Alabama A W 15–14 19.7 57.1 -37.4 36.6% 5.9% —
9 Georgia Southern H W 34–24 40.4 40.4 0 51.9% 32.2% —
10 Troy A W 23–10 89.3 5.7 +83.6 85.8% 90.6% ✓
11 Southern Miss H L 21–27 14 73.9 -59.9 26.4% 4.1% —
13 Louisiana H L 30–34 33.4 39.9 -6.5 50.4% 18.8% —
14 App State A W 30–29 17.3 56.8 -39.6 35.1% 3.2% —
1 Missouri State NPost W 34–28 93.6 4 +89.6 90% 96.4% ✓
6W / 12G ——— — — —
Momentum Control Game-by-Game Scoring Sequences Log
Wk Opponent Result Opponent-Adjusted Raw Edge Opp Wt
MC Off MC Def ↓ MC Net Off Def ↓
2 Arkansas A L 14–56 0 5.1 -5.1 0 3 ✗ 0
1
3 Iowa State H L 16–24 1.72 1.72 +0 1 1 Tied
1
4 Kennesaw State A L 21–28 0.62 0 +0.62 1 0 ✓ +1
0.62
5 UL Monroe A L 16–28 0 0.37 -0.37 0 1 ✗ 0
0.37
6 Texas State H W 31–30 0 0 +0 0 0 Tied
0.84
8 South Alabama A W 15–14 0.37 0 +0.37 1 0 ✓ +1
0.37
9 Georgia Southern H W 34–24 1.04 0 +1.04 2 0 ✓ +2
0.52
10 Troy A W 23–10 1.24 0 +1.24 2 0 ✓ +2
0.62
11 Southern Miss H L 21–27 0 0 +0 0 0 Tied
0.77
13 Louisiana H L 30–34 0 0.89 -0.89 0 3 ✗ 0
0.3
14 App State A W 30–29 0 0.24 -0.24 0 1 ✗ 0
0.24
1 Missouri State HPost W 34–28 0.93 0 +0.93 2 0 ✓ +2
0.47
6W / 12G ——— 9 9 — —