Texas State Composite Control — 2021 | Punt & Rally
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Texas State
2021 Composite Control — Game Control + Momentum Control
2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021
Composite Score
38.3
Composite Rank: #103  •  4–7 (FBS games)
GC Score
21.9
#111 in FBS
GC Net
-51.5
Raw GC Net
GC Off
8.7
SOS-Adj Offense
GC Allowed
60.2
Avg Allowed ↓
MC Score
54.7
#82 in FBS
MC Net
-0.86
Raw MC Net
MC Off
0.88
Adj. Sequences
MC Win%
0%
When winning MC
MC > GC by 33 points. Texas State generated strong consecutive scoring sequences (Momentum Control score: 54.7) but spent more time in contested win probability territory than their sequence count suggests (Game Control score: 21.9). This profile suggests a team that delivers explosive scoring runs but also plays in close, contested games.
Game Control Game-by-Game Win Probability Log
Wk Opponent Result GC Scores Avg WP% Ctrl% Never Trailed
GC Off GC Allowed GC Net
1 Baylor H L 20–29 6.4 87.6 -81.3 11.5% 0% —
2 Florida International A W 23–17 44.9 33.9 +11 52% 41.5% —
3 Incarnate Word H — 49.5 27.1 +22.4 61.6% 53.2% —
4 Eastern Michigan A L 21–59 3.9 94.4 -90.5 9.7% 0% —
6 South Alabama H W 33–31 16.9 60 -43.1 30.9% 0.6% —
7 Troy H L 28–31 14.9 73.6 -58.7 28.3% 1.9% —
8 Georgia State A L 16–28 12.9 74.5 -61.5 23.5% 0% —
9 Louisiana A L 0–45 2.6 92.1 -89.6 6.4% 0% —
10 UL Monroe H W 27–19 50.6 16.7 +33.9 61.1% 25.5% —
11 Georgia Southern H L 30–38 15.9 57.5 -41.6 34.9% 2.3% —
12 Coastal Carolina A L 21–35 2.3 92.5 -90.2 5.7% 0% —
13 Arkansas State A W 24–22 68 12.7 +55.3 68.2% 50.6% ✓
4W / 11G ——— — — —
Momentum Control Game-by-Game Scoring Sequences Log
Wk Opponent Result Opponent-Adjusted Raw Edge Opp Wt
MC Off MC Def ↓ MC Net Off Def ↓
1 Baylor H L 20–29 4.62 2.31 +2.31 2 1 ✓ +2
1
2 Florida International A W 23–17 0 0.08 -0.08 0 1 ✗ 0
0.08
4 Eastern Michigan A L 21–59 0 2.74 -2.74 0 5 ✗ 0
0.55
6 South Alabama H W 33–31 0.58 1.16 -0.58 1 2 ✗ 1
0.58
7 Troy H L 28–31 0 0.61 -0.61 0 1 ✗ 0
0.61
8 Georgia State A L 16–28 1.12 1.12 +0 1 1 Tied
1
9 Louisiana A L 0–45 0 8.32 -8.32 0 5 ✗ 0
1
10 UL Monroe H W 27–19 0 0 +0 0 0 Tied
0.1
11 Georgia Southern H L 30–38 0 0.24 -0.24 0 1 ✗ 0
0.24
12 Coastal Carolina A L 21–35 2.07 0 +2.07 1 0 ✓ +1
1
13 Arkansas State A W 24–22 0 0 +0 0 0 Tied
0.16
4W / 11G ——— 5 17 — —