Arkansas State Composite Control — 2021 | Punt & Rally
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Arkansas State
2021 Composite Control — Game Control + Momentum Control
2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021
Composite Score
26.3
Composite Rank: #117  •  2–10 (FBS games)
GC Score
10.9
#122 in FBS
GC Net
-68.2
Raw GC Net
GC Off
6.7
SOS-Adj Offense
GC Allowed
74.9
Avg Allowed ↓
MC Score
41.6
#110 in FBS
MC Net
-1.55
Raw MC Net
MC Off
0.39
Adj. Sequences
MC Win%
50%
When winning MC
MC > GC by 31 points. Arkansas State generated strong consecutive scoring sequences (Momentum Control score: 41.6) but spent more time in contested win probability territory than their sequence count suggests (Game Control score: 10.9). This profile suggests a team that delivers explosive scoring runs but also plays in close, contested games.
Game Control Game-by-Game Win Probability Log
Wk Opponent Result GC Scores Avg WP% Ctrl% Never Trailed
GC Off GC Allowed GC Net
1 Central Arkansas H W 40–21 66.7 19 +47.7 78.7% 78.9% —
2 Memphis H L 50–55 4.8 94.7 -90 11.9% 0% —
3 Washington A L 3–52 1 97 -96 2.4% 0% —
4 Tulsa A L 34–41 14.2 68.5 -54.4 20.8% 0% —
5 Georgia Southern A L 33–59 8.5 73 -64.5 20.1% 0% —
6 Coastal Carolina H L 20–52 1.1 97.9 -96.8 2.8% 0% —
8 Louisiana H L 27–28 13.1 70.1 -57 22% 0% —
9 South Alabama A L 13–31 2.1 96.8 -94.7 5.2% 0% —
10 App State H L 14–48 1.6 95.1 -93.5 4% 0% —
11 UL Monroe A W 27–24 43.5 37 +6.5 50.4% 38.6% —
12 Georgia State A L 20–28 10.3 82 -71.7 17.2% 0% —
13 Texas State H L 22–24 12.7 68 -55.3 31.8% 0% —
2W / 12G ——— — — —
Momentum Control Game-by-Game Scoring Sequences Log
Wk Opponent Result Opponent-Adjusted Raw Edge Opp Wt
MC Off MC Def ↓ MC Net Off Def ↓
1 Central Arkansas H W 40–21 0 0 +0 2 0 ✓ +2
0
2 Memphis H L 50–55 1.07 1.07 +0 1 1 Tied
1
3 Washington A L 3–52 0 3.82 -3.82 0 4 ✗ 0
0.95
4 Tulsa A L 34–41 1.42 2.85 -1.43 1 2 ✗ 1
1
5 Georgia Southern A L 33–59 0.24 0.24 +0 1 1 Tied
0.24
6 Coastal Carolina H L 20–52 0 8.29 -8.29 0 4 ✗ 0
1
8 Louisiana H L 27–28 1.66 0 +1.66 1 0 ✓ +1
1
9 South Alabama A L 13–31 0 1.73 -1.73 0 3 ✗ 0
0.58
10 App State H L 14–48 0 3.61 -3.61 0 2 ✗ 0
1
11 UL Monroe A W 27–24 0 0.21 -0.21 0 2 ✗ 0
0.1
12 Georgia State A L 20–28 0 0 +0 0 0 Tied
1
13 Texas State H L 22–24 0 0 +0 0 0 Tied
0.22
2W / 12G ——— 6 19 — —