Composite Control Rankings — 2021 College Football | Punt & Rally
Punt & Rally Analytics
2021 Composite Control Rankings

Game Control + Momentum Control — the most complete dominance metric in college football — 130 FBS teams — 2021 season

● Game Control — Win Probability ● Momentum Control — Scoring Sequences
85.6%
MC Win Rate
92.9%
MC + TO Win Rate
50 / 50
GC / MC Blend
0 – 100
Composite Scale
The Composite Control Score blends two independently validated dominance metrics into one number. Game Control measures win probability trajectory across every play — how favorable a team’s position was throughout the game. Momentum Control measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, forces a stop, and scores again. Both are opponent-adjusted, then normalized to a 0–100 scale within the season and blended equally. A score of 100 means the best team in both metrics. A score of 0 means the worst. When GC and MC disagree significantly, the “Split” column flags it — these are analytically interesting teams worth a closer look.
All 5 Yrs 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021
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# Team Conf Composite ▼ Game Control Momentum Control Split
GC Score GC Net MC Score MC Net
1 Georgia SEC 98.8 100 +66.9 97.5 +1.38 3
2 Alabama SEC 94.8 94.6 +58.7 95 +1.25 0
3 Ohio State B1G 93.6 87.2 +47.5 100 +1.51 13
4 Louisiana SBC 92.6 88.4 +49.3 96.7 +1.34 8
5 Cincinnati B12 91.6 93.6 +57.2 89.6 +0.96 4
6 Oklahoma SEC 89.5 84.1 +42.8 94.8 +1.24 11
7 Pittsburgh ACC 87.4 84.7 +43.7 90.2 +1 6
8 Utah B12 85.7 86 +45.6 85.5 +0.75 1
9 Coastal Carolina SBC 84.7 87.3 +47.6 82.2 +0.58 5
10 Michigan B1G 84.7 88.1 +48.9 81.2 +0.52 7
11 Baylor B12 83 80.8 +37.9 85.2 +0.73 4
12 Air Force MWC 82.4 84.9 +44 79.8 +0.45 5
13 Notre Dame Ind 82.2 80.6 +37.5 83.8 +0.66 3
14 Texas A&M SEC 76.5 65.2 +14.2 87.8 +0.87 23
15 Oklahoma State B12 76.1 73 +25.9 79.2 +0.42 6
16 Houston B12 76 80.8 +37.8 71.2 +0 10
17 UTSA AAC 75.8 74.2 +27.7 77.5 +0.33 3
18 Western Kentucky CUSA 75.4 57.6 +2.6 93.3 +1.16 36 ⚡
19 UCLA B1G 75.4 66.7 +16.4 84.1 +0.68 17
20 Boise State PAC 75.4 74.2 +27.8 76.6 +0.28 2
21 Clemson ACC 75.1 78.2 +33.8 72 +0.04 6
22 Wisconsin B1G 74.8 81.6 +39 68.1 -0.16 14
23 Fresno State PAC 74.5 77.4 +32.6 71.6 +0.02 6
24 Ole Miss SEC 74.2 72.9 +25.9 75.4 +0.22 3
25 Wake Forest ACC 74.1 79.9 +36.4 68.4 -0.15 12
26 Minnesota B1G 73.4 68.5 +19.1 78.2 +0.37 10
27 BYU B12 73 77.5 +32.8 68.5 -0.14 9
28 Army AAC 72.3 69.4 +20.5 75.3 +0.21 6
29 Iowa State B12 71.7 61.3 +8.1 82.1 +0.57 21
30 Toledo MAC 71.2 65.4 +14.5 77 +0.31 12
31 Western Michigan MAC 70.8 65.4 +14.5 76.2 +0.27 11
32 NC State ACC 70.3 66.3 +15.8 74.3 +0.16 8
33 San Diego State PAC 69.1 71.7 +23.9 66.5 -0.25 5
34 Arkansas SEC 68.4 59.7 +5.8 77.2 +0.31 18
35 Oregon B1G 68.1 68 +18.3 68.3 -0.15 0
36 SMU ACC 67.4 66.9 +16.7 68 -0.17 1
37 North Carolina ACC 67.1 55.3 -0.9 79 +0.41 24
38 Kentucky SEC 67 67.8 +18 66.2 -0.26 2
39 Washington State PAC 66.6 57.9 +3 75.4 +0.22 18
40 Penn State B1G 66 65.4 +14.4 66.6 -0.24 1
41 Utah State PAC 65.8 50.9 -7.6 80.7 +0.5 30
42 Oregon State PAC 65.4 57.9 +3 73 +0.09 15
43 Iowa B1G 64.7 58 +3.2 71.5 +0.01 14
44 Liberty CUSA 64.4 59.4 +5.4 69.4 -0.1 10
45 Purdue B1G 64.2 53.7 -3.2 74.7 +0.19 21
46 App State SBC 63.8 60.2 +6.5 67.4 -0.2 7
47 Central Michigan MAC 63.5 65.6 +14.8 61.3 -0.52 4
48 Florida SEC 62 61.9 +9.2 62.1 -0.48 0
49 Nevada MWC 61.3 57.2 +1.9 65.5 -0.3 8
50 Mississippi State SEC 61.3 48.9 -10.6 73.6 +0.13 25
51 Marshall SBC 60.9 65 +13.9 56.8 -0.76 8
52 Texas SEC 60.4 68.8 +19.6 52 -1 17
53 Louisville ACC 60.4 57.5 +2.5 63.3 -0.41 6
54 Memphis AAC 59.9 55.8 -0.1 63.9 -0.38 8
55 California ACC 59 54.7 -1.7 63.3 -0.41 9
56 Kansas State B12 59 52.3 -5.4 65.7 -0.29 13
57 UAB AAC 58.4 68 +18.4 48.8 -1.17 19
58 Tulsa AAC 57.8 45 -16.4 70.6 -0.03 26
59 West Virginia B12 57.5 44.2 -17.7 70.8 -0.02 27
60 Auburn SEC 57.2 55.1 -1.2 59.3 -0.62 4
61 East Carolina AAC 56.6 45.2 -16.2 68 -0.17 23
62 USC B1G 56.6 39.9 -24.2 73.3 +0.11 33 ⚡
63 Wyoming MWC 56.6 44.1 -17.8 69 -0.12 25
64 Boston College ACC 56.2 41.6 -21.7 70.9 -0.02 29
65 LSU SEC 56.2 52.3 -5.4 60.1 -0.58 8
66 Michigan State B1G 55.8 59.4 +5.3 52.3 -0.99 7
67 UCF B12 55.4 60.6 +7.1 50.3 -1.09 10
68 Colorado State PAC 55.2 39.2 -25.2 71.2 +-0 32 ⚡
69 Ball State MAC 54.9 46.8 -13.7 62.9 -0.44 16
70 Miami ACC 54.5 53.4 -3.7 55.6 -0.82 2
71 Washington B1G 54.4 47.9 -12 61 -0.54 13
72 Texas Tech B12 53.6 45.3 -16 61.9 -0.49 17
73 Arizona State B12 53.5 53.9 -3 53.1 -0.95 1
74 Miami (OH) MAC 53.4 44.8 -16.8 62 -0.48 17
75 Illinois B1G 53 37.8 -27.4 68.2 -0.16 30 ⚡
76 Nebraska B1G 52.9 42.4 -20.4 63.4 -0.41 21
77 Virginia Tech ACC 52.7 47.7 -12.4 57.8 -0.7 10
78 Tennessee SEC 52.4 54.9 -1.5 49.9 -1.11 5
79 Louisiana Tech CUSA 51.5 41 -22.5 61.9 -0.49 21
80 Hawai'i MWC 50.3 33.9 -33.4 66.8 -0.23 33 ⚡
81 Georgia State SBC 50 48.9 -10.6 51.1 -1.05 2
82 Florida State ACC 49.9 39.6 -24.7 60.3 -0.57 21
83 Syracuse ACC 49.5 35.4 -31 63.6 -0.4 28
84 Buffalo MAC 48 27.9 -42.4 68 -0.17 40 ⚡
85 Middle Tennessee CUSA 47.9 39 -25.7 56.8 -0.76 18
86 Virginia ACC 47.9 47.1 -13.3 48.6 -1.18 2
87 Florida Atlantic AAC 47.2 41 -22.6 53.4 -0.93 12
88 UTEP MWC 46.9 41.4 -22 52.4 -0.99 11
89 Ohio MAC 46.3 39.4 -24.9 53.2 -0.95 14
90 Kent State MAC 46 39 -25.6 53 -0.95 14
91 TCU B12 44.9 38.5 -26.3 51.3 -1.04 13
92 South Alabama SBC 43.4 38.6 -26.2 48.2 -1.21 10
93 San José State MWC 43.3 35.4 -31 51.2 -1.05 16
94 South Carolina SEC 43.2 30.6 -38.3 55.8 -0.81 25
95 North Texas AAC 42.3 34.4 -32.6 50.2 -1.1 16
96 Navy AAC 42.1 23.5 -49.1 60.6 -0.55 37 ⚡
97 Eastern Michigan MAC 42 31.4 -37.1 52.7 -0.97 21
98 Old Dominion SBC 41.8 30.6 -38.3 53.1 -0.95 23
99 Northern Illinois MWC 41.6 41.2 -22.3 42 -1.53 1
100 Troy SBC 41.5 37.5 -27.9 45.5 -1.34 8
101 Bowling Green MAC 40.3 26.3 -44.9 54.4 -0.88 28
102 Maryland B1G 40 39.5 -24.8 40.4 -1.61 1
103 Texas State PAC 38.3 21.9 -51.5 54.7 -0.86 33 ⚡
104 Missouri SEC 36.5 35.1 -31.6 38 -1.74 3
105 Colorado B12 36.5 27.6 -42.9 45.4 -1.35 18
106 Georgia Southern SBC 36.4 20 -54.4 52.7 -0.97 33 ⚡
107 Rutgers B1G 35.9 25.8 -45.6 46 -1.32 20
108 Charlotte AAC 35.3 28.9 -40.9 41.7 -1.55 13
109 Indiana B1G 34.6 22.2 -51.1 47 -1.27 25
110 Arizona B12 34.5 10.1 -69.4 58.9 -0.65 49 ⚡
111 Stanford ACC 33 21.8 -51.6 44.2 -1.42 22
112 UNLV MWC 31.9 22.3 -50.9 41.5 -1.56 19
113 Rice AAC 31.3 21.6 -52 41 -1.58 19
114 Southern Miss SBC 31.2 24.6 -47.4 37.8 -1.75 13
115 Georgia Tech ACC 28.6 24.3 -47.9 33 -2 9
116 South Florida AAC 28 16.6 -59.5 39.3 -1.67 23
117 Arkansas State SBC 26.3 10.9 -68.2 41.6 -1.55 31 ⚡
118 UL Monroe SBC 25.9 15.2 -61.7 36.7 -1.81 22
119 Tulane AAC 25.3 16.1 -60.2 34.5 -1.92 18
120 New Mexico MWC 22.8 17.1 -58.8 28.5 -2.24 11
121 Florida International CUSA 22.2 14.8 -62.3 29.6 -2.18 15
122 Kansas B12 18.7 10.2 -69.2 27.1 -2.31 17
123 Northwestern B1G 18.4 14.1 -63.3 22.7 -2.54 9
124 Temple AAC 18.1 7.1 -74 29.1 -2.21 22
125 Akron MAC 13.7 7.8 -72.9 19.5 -2.71 12
126 Duke ACC 13.5 18.3 -57 8.7 -3.27 10
127 New Mexico State CUSA 13.5 10.2 -69.2 16.7 -2.85 7
128 Vanderbilt SEC 10.3 6.6 -74.8 14.1 -2.99 8
129 UConn Ind 4.2 8.5 -71.9 0 -3.73 9
130 Massachusetts MAC 3.3 0 -84.7 6.6 -3.39 7
⚡ Split > 30 — GC and MC disagree significantly. These teams are worth a closer look.