San Diego State at Boise State - 2026 Matchup Preview
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San Diego State Aztecs at Boise State Broncos

Boise State logo
Saturday, November 21st 2026 (12:00 PM EST)
Albertsons Stadium - Boise, ID  (Pac-12)

 
Aztecs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Sean Lewis (12 - 13)
Avg Score : 26 - 15 (18 - 18 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 3.6 (#48)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 4)
BSU 2nd straight Home Game
BSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Boise State -0.5  (SP+ SDSU -3.5)

Projected Score: SDSU: 24 - BSU: 25 (49)
BSU Win prob: 53% | Cover: 53%
SDSU Travel: 749 miles, 1 hrs behind
Broncos (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Spencer Danielson (24 - 8)
Avg Score : 30 - 24 (41 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.1 - 3.9 (#50)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 5)
 
San Diego State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5San Diego State vs Portland State-28
Sat 9/12San Diego State at UCLA+3.5
Sat 9/19San Diego State vs James Madison-2
Sat 9/26San Diego State at Toledo+1.5
Sat 10/3San Diego State vs Texas State-4.5
Sat 10/10San Diego State at Oregon State-14
Sat 10/17San Diego State vs Fresno State-5.5
Sat 10/24San Diego State at Colorado State-15
Sat 10/31San Diego State vs Washington State-8.5
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/14San Diego State vs Utah State-13.5
Sat 11/21San Diego State at Boise State+0.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule
Boise State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Boise State at Oregon+24.5
Sat 9/12Boise State vs Memphis-0.5
Sat 9/19Boise State vs South Dakota-26.5
Sat 9/26Boise State at Western Michigan-4
Sat 10/3Boise State vs Utah State-11.5
Sat 10/10Boise State at Fresno State+1.5
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/24Boise State at Washington State-1.5
Sat 10/31Boise State vs Texas State-2.5
Sat 11/7Boise State at Colorado State-13
Sat 11/14Boise State vs Oregon State-17
Sat 11/21Boise State vs San Diego State-0.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SDSU#93 (.13)42% (76)26.446% (40)3.34 (10)19936% (121)1583.51 (90)#4 (-.01)35% (10)15.438% (24)33% (4)2.42 (3)55.91.21.4
BSU#44 (.2)42% (77)29.943% (80)3.11 (39)17941% (83)2453.66 (73)#53 (.12)36% (14)24.141% (50)33% (6)4.14 (111)59.41.51.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SDSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SDSU Offense1326.418.241.8%3.511.2183561991584.861%37%46%36%13%.13
BSU Defense1424.122.336.5%4.141.6 - - - - - 52%46%41%33%17%.12
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SDSU Defense1315.418.335.1%2.421.4 - - - - - 48%50%38%33%15%-.01
BSU Offense1429.941.341.8%3.661.5224241792454.651%47%43%41%14%.2

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
San Diego State1330:1717.931%52%6.255.91.21.44.82.5531.7
Boise State1432:5022.146%51%6.959.41.51.662330.6
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SDSU Offense1361% (9)46% (40)41.8198.94.825 (70).17 (43)3.34 (10)80% (16)7% (22)0.9 (94)
BSU Defense1452% (93)41% (50) - - - - .2 (120)2.98 (88)67% (39)11% (28)1.22 (134)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SDSU Defense1348% (46)38% (24) - - - - .06 (43)3.04 (99)63% (15)8% (113)0.96 (70)
BSU Offense1451% (51)43% (80)39.3179.44.629 (30).16 (46)3.11 (39)79% (22)8% (33)1 (55)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SDSU Offense1337% (128)36% (121)12.822.3157.97.112.410 (106)10 (7).09 (127)1.7 (20)30% (41)20% (136).04 (132)6% (48)1.9 (88)
BSU Defense1446% (45)33% (6) - - - - - - 14 (22).08 (7)1.7 (116)37% (4)28% (49).22 (33)6% (81)2.1 (87)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SDSU Defense1350% (90)33% (4) - - - - - - 15 (55)-.04 (2)1.4 (16)35% (17)23% (6).06 (3)7% (22)1.8 (14)
BSU Offense1447% (83)41% (83)19.633.7244.97.312.523 (22)14 (88).27 (62)1.6 (43)33% (91)31% (58).28 (74)6% (65)1.8 (124)

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: 3.60  #52
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 16.63  #57
San Diego State's Defense Rating: 13.02  #46
2026 Talent Rating: 651.00  #70
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #104
San Diego State's 2026 Expected Record: 7.4 - 3.6
San Diego State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.7  #42
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.4  #90
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.6  #28

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 597.13
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.61

Power Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: 3.60   Boise State: 5.66

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: 6.7   Boise State: 3.1




Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 5.66  #54
Boise State's Offense Rating: 18.08  #41
Boise State's Defense Rating: 14.87  #63
2026 Talent Rating: 644.00  #72
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #104
Boise State's 2026 Expected Record: 7.1 - 3.9
Boise State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.1  #67
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.1  #55
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.1  #60

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 597.13
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.61


San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 26.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.2
Defense: 15.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 18.3

San Diego State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Boise State 25
San Diego State 24


Projected Total Points: 49
Boise State Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 41.3
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3

Boise State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/15San Diego State17Boise State7San Diego State -1.5San Diego State41.5Under
202411/01Boise State56San Diego State24Boise State -24.5Boise State55.5Over
202309/22San Diego State31Boise State34Boise State -6.5San Diego State46.0Over
202209/30Boise State35San Diego State13Boise State -6Boise State38.0Over
202111/26San Diego State27Boise State16Boise State -3San Diego State44.0Under
201810/06Boise State13San Diego State19Boise State -13.5San Diego State50.0Under
201710/14San Diego State14Boise State31San Diego State -5.5Boise State47.0Under
201411/15Boise State38San Diego State29Boise State -15San Diego State0
201311/23San Diego State34Boise State31Boise State -6San Diego State0
201211/03Boise State19San Diego State21
201111/19San Diego State35Boise State52
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Boise State633 Overs
San Diego State564 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 56 - 33 - 33 - 0
Road Teams5 - 63 - 60 - 33 - 3

(#52) SDSU at (#54) BSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSDSUBSU
Game ControlGC #13 #81
Momentum ControlMC #37 #65
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #52 #54
SP+SP+ #42 #67
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #70 #72
Blue ChipsBC% #104 #104
San Diego State Notes
(3/8) Vibes: Lewis era rising, NIL funding is up
(3/1) QB Denegal back but he ain't it. Depth overtake?
(3/1) RB Sutton great (1.3K) very good depth. Strong
(3/1) WR 3 portals, Napier good/back, have options
(3/1) OL 6 portals, 5 fair to good starters, have depth
(3/1) DL has avg prod but good rotation of 6 exp'd guys
(3/1) LB replacing nearly all from a great Def LY
(3/1) DBs 7 portals, some really prod FCS adds.
(3/1) New DC Sumler (DB LY) has big shoes to fill
San Diego State Injury Report
Boise State Notes
(3/1) Vibes: Good, schedule is tougher + new Pac 12
(3/1) RB duo of Riley & Gaines one of CFBs best
(3/1) WR rebuild Bates & Ford have exp, Morris portal
(3/1) OL inconsistent LY, returns 3, have depth. Decent
(3/1) DL good G5, Virgin-Morgan an AA, have depth
(3/1) DB portal focus, added 4, should good again
(3/1) Playing Oregon, Memphis & S Dakota OOC.
(3/1) QB Madsen a 2 yr starter, has his OC back TY
Boise State Injury Report
San Diego State on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat
SDSU OffBSU Def
Game ControlGC #11 #52
Momentum ControlMC #78 #32
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #76 #14
ExplosiveExp #112 #129
PPAPPA #93 #53
PowerPwr #57 #63
SP+SP+ #90 #60
Pts POPPO #90 #111
HavocHav #25 #50
San Diego State Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat
SDSU OffBSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #40 #50
Run ExplRExp #94 #134
PPAExp #43 #120
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #10 #88
Stuff RateStuff #14 #61
TackleTak - NR
San Diego State Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat
SDSU OffBSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #121 #6
Pass ExplPExl #20 #116
PPAExp #127 #7
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #22 #28
DB HavocDB #48 #81
Boise State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatBSU OffSDSU Def
Game ControlGC #105 #25
Momentum ControlMC #100 #11
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #77 #10
ExplosiveExp #47 #23
PPAPPA #44 #4
PowerPwr #41 #46
SP+SP+ #55 #28
Pts POPPO #73 #3
HavocHav #49 #78
Boise State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
BSU OffSDSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #80 #24
Run ExplRExp #55 #70
PPAExp #46 #43
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #39 #99
Stuff RateStuff #33 #109
TackleTak - NR
Boise State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatBSU OffSDSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #83 #4
Pass ExplPExl #43 #16
PPAExp #62 #2
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #33 #113
DB HavocDB #65 #22
Program Comparison
BSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Down to Top G5

SDSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'26 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Albertsons Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
San Diego State beat Boise State last year (17-7)
Boise State beat San Diego State in 2024 (56-24)
Boise State beat San Diego State in 2023 (34-31)

  
SDSU's OC Sean Lewis (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jayden Denegal14324459%1810987.4
Bert Emanuel Jr.91656%74004.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lucky Sutton2531292105.150
Christian Washington9756045.841
Bert Emanuel Jr.3227328.572
Jayden Denegal6710341.529
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Napier48632213.280
Aldrich Doe (Tr)37467212.635
Javion Kinnard (Tr)18228112.779
Nathan Acevedo16190011.942

View San Diego State's Full Roster

SDSU's DC Demetrius Sumler (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jalen Thomeson (Tr)867021
Dalesean Staley701008
Tano Letuli270021
Amari Comier193111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Djibril Abdou Rahman (Tr)51111
Amari Comier193111
Kai Wallin (Tr)172141
Solomon Davis (Tr)61100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dalesean Staley701008
Brady Nassar140043
Krishna Clay151011

BSU's OC Nate Potter (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maddux Madsen17630258%23331897.7
Max Cutforth9516757%1059456.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dylan Riley1951125105.877
Sire Gaines16181285.046
Juelz Goff (Tr)6927053.917
Harry Stewart III (Tr)219814.715
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Darren Morris (Tr)27508418.871
Ben Ford21325515.560
Cameron Bates18307117.144
Matt Wagner23246110.728

View Boise State's Full Roster

BSU's DC Erik Chinander (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Boen Phelps664150
Jayden Virgin56136120
Jake Ripp433030
JeRico Washington Jr. (Tr)4321010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Virgin56136120
Sterling Lane63310
Boen Phelps664150
Lopez Sanusi131100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
JeRico Washington Jr. (Tr)4321010
Sherrod Smith141006
Jaden Mickey387115