Fresno State at Texas State - 2026 Matchup Preview
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Fresno State Bulldogs at Texas State Bobcats

Texas State logo
Saturday, November 14th 2026 (12:00 PM EST)
Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium - San Marcos, TX  (Pac-12)

 
Bulldogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Matt Entz (9 - 4)
Avg Score : 26 - 19 (26 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.2 - 3.8 (#32)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 7)
FRES 2nd straight Road Game
TXST is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Texas State -4  (SP+ TXST -0)

Projected Score: FRES: 27 - TXST: 31 (57)
TXST Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
FRES Travel: 1344 miles, 2 hrs behind
Bobcats (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (23 - 16)
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (38 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.8 - 4.2 (#57)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 4)
 
Fresno State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Fresno State at USC+17.5
Sat 9/12Fresno State vs Sacramento State-9.5
Sat 9/19Fresno State at San José State-16.5
Sat 9/26Fresno State vs Rice-20.5
Sat 10/3Fresno State at Washington State-0.5
Sat 10/10Fresno State vs Boise State-1.5
Sat 10/17Fresno State at San Diego State+5.5
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/31Fresno State vs Oregon State-16
Sat 11/7Fresno State at Utah State-5.5
Sat 11/14Fresno State at Texas State+4
Sat 11/21Fresno State vs Colorado State-17
Sat 11/28Fresno State vs TBD-25.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule
Texas State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Texas State at Texas+26
Sat 9/12Texas State vs UTSA-3.5
Sat 9/19Texas State vs North Texas+0.5
Sat 9/26Texas State vs Incarnate Word-27
Sat 10/3Texas State at San Diego State+4.5
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/17Texas State vs Colorado State-18.5
Sat 10/24Texas State vs Utah State-11.5
Sat 10/31Texas State at Boise State+2.5
Sat 11/7Texas State at Oregon State-12
Sat 11/14Texas State vs Fresno State-4
Sat 11/21Texas State vs Washington State-6.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FRES#106 (.11)39% (111)25.838% (120)2.79 (102)17141% (78)1833.29 (111)#41 (.11)39% (32)18.843% (78)35% (13)3.26 (33)60.61.52
TXST#6 (.33)46% (24)36.546% (43)3.13 (34)22347% (25)2514.42 (21)#76 (.18)41% (61)2940% (48)43% (87)3.98 (98)59.51.30.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FRES0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TXST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FRES Offense1325.826.338.6%3.291.5193541711834.653%45%38%41%15%.11
TXST Defense132928.341.2%3.980.9 - - - - - 52%46%40%43%16%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FRES Defense1318.824.838.9%3.262 - - - - - 50%49%43%35%17%.11
TXST Offense1336.53846.3%4.421.3234742232515.256%42%46%47%12%.33

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Fresno State1332:1918.936%43%6.660.61.525.21.8333.6
Texas State1329:1022.946%60%6.959.51.30.97.21.9227.4
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FRES Offense1353% (40)38% (120)37.1170.74.622 (49).02 (114)2.79 (102)73% (57)10% (87)1.01 (50)
TXST Defense1352% (101)40% (48) - - - - .08 (58)2.67 (25)70% (58)11% (25)1.06 (110)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FRES Defense1350% (62)43% (78) - - - - .09 (61)3 (92)74% (91)10% (70)0.82 (8)
TXST Offense1356% (22)46% (43)42.9222.75.236 (4).28 (7)3.13 (34)67% (102)9% (42)1.15 (10)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FRES Offense1345% (99)41% (78)18.428.7183.46.41014 (75)13 (127).25 (64)1.5 (77)33% (97)30% (72).31 (69)5% (45)2 (86)
TXST Defense1346% (44)43% (87) - - - - - - 9 (123).3 (89)1.6 (97)33% (42)32% (98).28 (64)5% (114)1.9 (30)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FRES Defense1349% (76)35% (13) - - - - - - 20 (12).15 (25)1.6 (94)33% (43)27% (33).19 (24)8% (13)1.8 (18)
TXST Offense1342% (115)47% (25)19.527.8250.8912.921 (86)7 (7).42 (17)1.6 (31)29% (29)38% (9).54 (6)4% (10)2 (71)

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: 2.37  #56
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 15.14  #73
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 12.77  #43
2026 Talent Rating: 610.00  #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #104
Fresno State's 2026 Expected Record: 8.2 - 3.8
Fresno State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.8  #69
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0  #100
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1  #37

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 597.13
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.61

Power Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: 2.37   Texas State: 5.87

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: 1.8   Texas State: 2.3




Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: 5.87  #47
Texas State's Offense Rating: 17.82  #45
Texas State's Defense Rating: 13.38  #50
2026 Talent Rating: 586.00  #85
Blue Chip Ratio: 375  #58
Texas State's 2026 Expected Record: 6.8 - 4.2
Texas State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.3  #68
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.6  #15
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.6  #117

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 597.13
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.61


Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.3
Defense: 18.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.8

Fresno State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Texas State 31
Fresno State 27


Projected Total Points: 57
Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.3

Texas State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas State000 Overs
Fresno State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#56) FRES at (#47) TXST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatFRESTXST
Game ControlGC #52 #22
Momentum ControlMC #17 #35
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #56 #47
SP+SP+ #69 #68
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #81 #85
Blue ChipsBC% #104 #58
Fresno State Notes
(3/1) Vibes: Good, 9-4 LY solid, Off must improve
(3/1) Year 2 under Entz & staff. Def > Off in 1st year
(3/1) QB Mandal vs Martin (MD). Both very inexp'd
(3/1) RB Donelson + Luke good duo, Thomas (BU) add
(3/1) WR Freeman good, have options. TE portal (NIU)
(3/1) OL decent LY, 3 really good starters back, depth
(3/1) Run Def must improve, DL is ? but has exp
(3/1) LB were very young LY but must improve
(3/1) CB Harris an AA, good #2 & S are decent. Top unit
Fresno State Injury Report
Texas State Notes
(3/1) Vibes: Off should be great, can Def improve?
(3/1) New DC Will Windham (S Al's DC, awful LY)?
(3/1) QB Brad Jackson back, was good LY, very mobile
(3/1) RB Burrell back, but depth behind him has 0 car
(3/1) WR Sparks + Dawn both 1K LY, top G5 duo?
(3/1) OL has 2 starters, 3 portals and lots of ? beyond
(3/1) DL 6 portals, not much returns, not sure here
(3/1) DB 6 w starting exp, 6 portals, best Def unit
(3/1) LY won last 3 to bowl, Def awful in 5 gm L streak
Texas State Injury Report
Fresno State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
FRES OffTXST Def
Game ControlGC #56 #28
Momentum ControlMC #39 #60
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #111 #61
ExplosiveExp #54 #110
PPAPPA #106 #76
PowerPwr #73 #50
SP+SP+ #100 #117
Pts POPPO #111 #98
HavocHav #64 #67
Fresno State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
FRES OffTXST Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #120 #48
Run ExplRExp #50 #110
PPAExp #114 #58
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #102 #25
Stuff RateStuff #90 #10
TackleTak - NR
Fresno State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
FRES OffTXST Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #78 #87
Pass ExplPExl #77 #97
PPAExp #64 #89
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #87 #25
DB HavocDB #45 #114
Texas State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatTXST OffFRES Def
Game ControlGC #18 #48
Momentum ControlMC #16 #13
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #24 #32
ExplosiveExp #16 #25
PPAPPA #6 #41
PowerPwr #45 #43
SP+SP+ #15 #37
Pts POPPO #21 #33
HavocHav #15 #30
Texas State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
TXST OffFRES Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #43 #78
Run ExplRExp #10 #8
PPAExp #7 #61
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #34 #92
Stuff RateStuff #36 #50
TackleTak - NR
Texas State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatTXST OffFRES Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #25 #13
Pass ExplPExl #31 #94
PPAExp #17 #25
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #42 #70
DB HavocDB #10 #13
Program Comparison
TXST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Remains Top G5

FRES 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
FRES's OC Josh Davis (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Khristian Martin (Tr)111765%105106.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rayshon Luke11069966.469
Tariq Thomas (Tr)13160234.649
Bryson Donelson14258354.157
Brandon Ramirez6027134.519
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josiah Freeman52642612.351
Ezekiel Avit2825509.141
Rayshon Luke3622826.323
Jahlil McClain13169113.043

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Nick Benedetto (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Simeon Harris537105
Tytus Khajavi373110
K'Vion Thunderbird322013
Jahzon Jacks327430
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jahzon Jacks327430
Deijon Laffitte275303
Simeon Harris537105
Ryan Wilson252104
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Simeon Harris537105
Ryan Wilson252104
K'Vion Thunderbird322013

TXST's OC Landon Keopple (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brad Jackson25135271%32232179.2
Shaker Reisig (Tr)101953%141127.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Brad Jackson174744174.363
Greg Burrell10067136.761
Jaylen Jenkins3117025.558
Torrance Burgess Jr.209514.811
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Beau Sparks8412001014.373
Chris Dawn Jr.651007415.582
Kylen Evans15211114.145
Greg Burrell1312509.623

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Will Windham (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ryan Nolan723022
Ayden Jones521020
Terrence Cooks II465121
Amarion Atwood292023
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Donterry Russell186401
Terrence Cooks II465121
Chancellor Owens (Tr)21100
DJ Jackson40000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dexter Ricks Jr. (Tr)181004
Amarion Atwood292023
Ryan Nolan723022