North Texas at Texas State - 2026 Matchup Preview
North Texas logo

North Texas Mean Green at Texas State Bobcats

Texas State logo
Saturday, September 19th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium - San Marcos, TX

 
Mean Green (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Neal Brown (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 45 - 27 (44 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 3.9 (#35)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 5) (Bad: 5)
TXST 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: North Texas -0.5  (SP+ UNT -11.5)

Projected Score: UNT: 35 - TXST: 35 (70)
UNT Win prob: 53% | Cover: 53%
UNT Travel: 233 miles
Bobcats (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (23 - 16)
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (38 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.8 - 4.2 (#57)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 4)
 
North Texas's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5North Texas at Indiana+25.5
Sat 9/12North Texas vs UNLV-5.5
Sat 9/19North Texas at Texas State-0.5
Sat 9/26North Texas vs Houston Christian-28.5
Thu 10/1North Texas at Tulsa-8.5
Sat 10/10North Texas vs Charlotte-29
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/24North Texas at Navy-1.5
Thu 10/29North Texas vs Florida Atlantic-16.5
Sat 11/7North Texas vs Rice-24.5
Sat 11/14North Texas at UTSA-1.5
Sat 11/21North Texas at Tulane-0
Sat 11/28North Texas vs UAB-24.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Texas's Schedule
Texas State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Texas State at Texas+26
Sat 9/12Texas State vs UTSA-3.5
Sat 9/19Texas State vs North Texas+0.5
Sat 9/26Texas State vs Incarnate Word-27
Sat 10/3Texas State at San Diego State+4.5
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/17Texas State vs Colorado State-18.5
Sat 10/24Texas State vs Utah State-11.5
Sat 10/31Texas State at Boise State+2.5
Sat 11/7Texas State at Oregon State-12
Sat 11/14Texas State vs Fresno State-4
Sat 11/21Texas State vs Washington State-6.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNT#2 (.36)51% (3)45.153% (2)3.58 (1)19451% (8)3174.98 (4)#80 (.18)44% (94)26.548% (125)37% (26)4.03 (104)45.51.42
TXST#6 (.33)46% (24)36.546% (43)3.13 (34)22347% (25)2514.42 (21)#76 (.18)41% (61)2940% (48)43% (87)3.98 (98)59.51.30.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNT0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TXST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNT Offense1445.143.751.5%4.981.4265111943175.348%51%53%51%12%.36
TXST Defense132928.341.2%3.980.9 - - - - - 52%46%40%43%16%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNT Defense1426.528.343.5%4.032 - - - - - 60%38%48%37%14%.18
TXST Offense1336.53846.3%4.421.3234742232515.256%42%46%47%12%.33

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Texas1428:2225.546%69%5.645.51.425.31.7033.8
Texas State1329:1022.946%60%6.959.51.30.97.21.9227.4
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNT Offense1448% (84)53% (2)36.6194.15.349 (1).33 (3)3.58 (1)73% (58)7% (8)1.1 (17)
TXST Defense1352% (101)40% (48) - - - - .08 (58)2.67 (25)70% (58)11% (25)1.06 (110)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNT Defense1460% (134)48% (125) - - - - .18 (111)3.19 (118)77% (111)9% (80)1.01 (92)
TXST Offense1356% (22)46% (43)42.9222.75.236 (4).28 (7)3.13 (34)67% (102)9% (42)1.15 (10)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNT Offense1451% (50)51% (8)23.234.1317.39.313.735 (8)9 (20).43 (12)1.6 (63)26% (9)39% (6).44 (22)5% (25)2 (68)
TXST Defense1346% (44)43% (87) - - - - - - 9 (123).3 (89)1.6 (97)33% (42)32% (98).28 (64)5% (114)1.9 (30)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNT Defense1438% (2)37% (26) - - - - - - 15 (31).21 (55)1.7 (113)29% (116)28% (58).27 (62)4% (126)2 (58)
TXST Offense1342% (115)47% (25)19.527.8250.8912.921 (86)7 (7).42 (17)1.6 (31)29% (29)38% (9).54 (6)4% (10)2 (71)

North Texas's Power Ratings
North Texas's Power Rating: -1.33  #79
North Texas's Offense Rating: 15.94  #64
North Texas's Defense Rating: 17.27  #94
2026 Talent Rating: 571.00  #88
Blue Chip Ratio: 250%  #67
North Texas's 2026 Expected Record: 8.1 - 3.9
North Texas's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.8  #19
North Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 43.1  #1
North Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6  #78

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 513
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.61

Power Ratings Matchup
North Texas: -1.33   Texas State: 5.87

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Texas: 13.8   Texas State: 2.3




Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: 5.87  #47
Texas State's Offense Rating: 17.82  #45
Texas State's Defense Rating: 13.38  #50
2026 Talent Rating: 586.00  #85
Blue Chip Ratio: 375  #58
Texas State's 2026 Expected Record: 6.8 - 4.2
Texas State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.3  #68
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.6  #15
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.6  #117

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 597.13
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.61


North Texas Scoring
Offense: 45.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 43.7
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.3

North Texas's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
North Texas 35
Texas State 35


Projected Total Points: 70
Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.3

Texas State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202401/03Texas State30North Texas28Texas State -15.5North Texas67.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas State100 Overs
North Texas011 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#79) UNT at (#47) TXST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUNTTXST
Game ControlGC #9 #22
Momentum ControlMC #4 #35
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #79 #47
SP+SP+ #19 #68
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #88 #85
Blue ChipsBC% #67 #58
North Texas Notes
(2/23) Vibes: Uneasy, lost HC & portals to Ok St
(2/23) New era under Brown, DC Powledge not great
(2/23) QB T Jackson (UCF) is interesting, depth is ?
(2/23) RB J White (WVU) over 1.7K but coming off inj
(2/23) WR a patchwork of portals, most exp'd from FCS
(2/23) OL looks rough, only 1 exp'd starter, many ?
(2/23) DL/LB could be OK, some good exp, mixed prod
(2/23) DBs huge ?, very little exp outside 1 FCS CB
North Texas Injury Report
Texas State Notes
(3/1) Vibes: Off should be great, can Def improve?
(3/1) New DC Will Windham (S Al's DC, awful LY)?
(3/1) QB Brad Jackson back, was good LY, very mobile
(3/1) RB Burrell back, but depth behind him has 0 car
(3/1) WR Sparks + Dawn both 1K LY, top G5 duo?
(3/1) OL has 2 starters, 3 portals and lots of ? beyond
(3/1) DL 6 portals, not much returns, not sure here
(3/1) DB 6 w starting exp, 6 portals, best Def unit
(3/1) LY won last 3 to bowl, Def awful in 5 gm L streak
Texas State Injury Report
North Texas on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
UNT OffTXST Def
Game ControlGC #10 #28
Momentum ControlMC #3 #60
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #3 #61
ExplosiveExp #32 #110
PPAPPA #2 #76
PowerPwr #64 #50
SP+SP+ #1 #117
Pts POPPO #4 #98
HavocHav #9 #67
North Texas Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
UNT OffTXST Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #2 #48
Run ExplRExp #17 #110
PPAExp #3 #58
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #1 #25
Stuff RateStuff #7 #10
TackleTak - NR
North Texas Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
UNT OffTXST Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #8 #87
Pass ExplPExl #63 #97
PPAExp #12 #89
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #8 #25
DB HavocDB #25 #114
Texas State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatTXST OffUNT Def
Game ControlGC #18 #7
Momentum ControlMC #16 #12
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #24 #94
ExplosiveExp #16 #52
PPAPPA #6 #80
PowerPwr #45 #94
SP+SP+ #15 #78
Pts POPPO #21 #104
HavocHav #15 #108
Texas State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
TXST OffUNT Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #43 #125
Run ExplRExp #10 #92
PPAExp #7 #111
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #34 #118
Stuff RateStuff #36 #125
TackleTak - NR
Texas State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatTXST OffUNT Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #25 #26
Pass ExplPExl #31 #113
PPAExp #17 #55
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #42 #80
DB HavocDB #10 #126
Program Comparison
TXST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Remains Top G5

UNT 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Texas State beat North Texas in 2024 (30-28)

  
UNT's OC Neal Brown (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tayven Jackson (Tr)20031564%21511086.8
Chaston Ditta (Tr)122450%215309.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Nick Osho (Tr)11968685.879
Jahiem White (Tr)2413335.532
Jayden Becks218724.116
Tayven Jackson (Tr)548531.625
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
James Tyre (Tr)688321112.242
Grayson O'Bara (Tr)44590213.471
Corri Milliner (Tr)24341314.249
Dalton Carnes780011.421

View North Texas's Full Roster

UNT's DC Matt Powledge (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aaron Alexander (Tr)923100
David Onuoha (Tr)425320
Udoka Ezeani (Tr)4110531
Davion Rhodes (Tr)346011
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Udoka Ezeani (Tr)4110531
David Onuoha (Tr)425320
Brayden Knox192100
Aaron Alexander (Tr)923100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryan Allen Jr.151004
Caden Jenkins (Tr)101003
Keshawn Davila (Tr)20002

TXST's OC Landon Keopple (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brad Jackson25135271%32232179.2
Shaker Reisig (Tr)101953%141127.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Brad Jackson174744174.363
Greg Burrell10067136.761
Jaylen Jenkins3117025.558
Torrance Burgess Jr.209514.811
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Beau Sparks8412001014.373
Chris Dawn Jr.651007415.582
Kylen Evans15211114.145
Greg Burrell1312509.623

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Will Windham (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ryan Nolan723022
Ayden Jones521020
Terrence Cooks II465121
Amarion Atwood292023
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Donterry Russell186401
Terrence Cooks II465121
Chancellor Owens (Tr)21100
DJ Jackson40000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dexter Ricks Jr. (Tr)181004
Amarion Atwood292023
Ryan Nolan723022