UTSA at Texas State - 2026 Matchup Preview
UTSA logo

UTSA Roadrunners at Texas State Bobcats

Texas State logo
Saturday, September 12th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium - San Marcos, TX

 
Roadrunners (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Traylor (53 - 26)
Avg Score : 36 - 29 (22 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.7 - 4.3 (#44)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 5)
Our Line: Texas State -3.5  (SP+ UTSA -1.5)
Projected Score: UTSA: 30 - TXST: 33 (63)
TXST Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
UTSA Travel: 47 miles
Bobcats (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (23 - 16)
Avg Score : 37 - 29 (38 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.8 - 4.2 (#57)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 4)
 
UTSA's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5UTSA vs UT Rio Grande Valley-25.5
Sat 9/12UTSA at Texas State+3.5
Sat 9/19UTSA at Texas+27
Sat 9/26UTSA vs Colorado State-17
Sat 10/3UTSA at Rice-15.5
Thu 10/8UTSA vs South Florida+2
Sat 10/17UTSA vs Navy-2.5
Sat 10/24UTSA at Tulane+4
— Bye Week —
Thu 11/5UTSA at Florida Atlantic-7.5
Sat 11/14UTSA vs North Texas+1.5
Sat 11/21UTSA at UAB-15.5
Sat 11/28UTSA vs Tulsa-9.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for UTSA's Schedule
Texas State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Texas State at Texas+26
Sat 9/12Texas State vs UTSA-3.5
Sat 9/19Texas State vs North Texas+0.5
Sat 9/26Texas State vs Incarnate Word-27
Sat 10/3Texas State at San Diego State+4.5
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/17Texas State vs Colorado State-18.5
Sat 10/24Texas State vs Utah State-11.5
Sat 10/31Texas State at Boise State+2.5
Sat 11/7Texas State at Oregon State-12
Sat 11/14Texas State vs Fresno State-4
Sat 11/21Texas State vs Washington State-6.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UTSA#31 (.23)45% (35)35.545% (47)2.81 (94)17447% (21)2474.23 (27)#82 (.18)40% (46)28.840% (44)40% (49)4.2 (115)68.70.91.4
TXST#6 (.33)46% (24)36.546% (43)3.13 (34)22347% (25)2514.42 (21)#76 (.18)41% (61)2940% (48)43% (87)3.98 (98)59.51.30.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UTSA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TXST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UTSA Offense1335.521.745.5%4.230.9224211742475.146%52%45%47%16%.23
TXST Defense132928.341.2%3.980.9 - - - - - 52%46%40%43%16%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UTSA Defense1328.833.739.6%4.21.4 - - - - - 50%49%40%40%19%.18
TXST Offense1336.53846.3%4.421.3234742232515.256%42%46%47%12%.33

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
UTSA1331:5121.840%46%7.368.70.91.45.91.8231.8
Texas State1329:1022.946%60%6.959.51.30.97.21.9227.4
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UTSA Offense1346% (100)45% (47)34.2174.15.121 (49).19 (35)2.81 (94)73% (61)10% (102)1.17 (6)
TXST Defense1352% (101)40% (48) - - - - .08 (58)2.67 (25)70% (58)11% (25)1.06 (110)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UTSA Defense1350% (65)40% (44) - - - - .12 (85)2.86 (62)64% (20)11% (20)0.97 (73)
TXST Offense1356% (22)46% (43)42.9222.75.236 (4).28 (7)3.13 (34)67% (102)9% (42)1.15 (10)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UTSA Offense1352% (37)47% (21)22.934.4247.27.210.834 (33)7 (34).33 (43)1.5 (96)30% (47)36% (21).45 (21)6% (55)2.2 (15)
TXST Defense1346% (44)43% (87) - - - - - - 9 (123).3 (89)1.6 (97)33% (42)32% (98).28 (64)5% (114)1.9 (30)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UTSA Defense1349% (77)40% (49) - - - - - - 11 (75).29 (85)1.8 (131)35% (18)28% (47).3 (69)7% (20)2.2 (123)
TXST Offense1342% (115)47% (25)19.527.8250.8912.921 (86)7 (7).42 (17)1.6 (31)29% (29)38% (9).54 (6)4% (10)2 (71)

UTSA's Power Ratings
UTSA's Power Rating: 0.72  #66
UTSA's Offense Rating: 16.42  #60
UTSA's Defense Rating: 15.70  #70
2026 Talent Rating: 535.00  #95
Blue Chip Ratio: 375%  #58
UTSA's 2026 Expected Record: 7.7 - 4.3
UTSA's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.7  #64
UTSA's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.3  #27
UTSA's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.0  #91

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 513
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.61

Power Ratings Matchup
UTSA: 0.72   Texas State: 5.87

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UTSA: 3.7   Texas State: 2.3




Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: 5.87  #47
Texas State's Offense Rating: 17.82  #45
Texas State's Defense Rating: 13.38  #50
2026 Talent Rating: 586.00  #85
Blue Chip Ratio: 375  #58
Texas State's 2026 Expected Record: 6.8 - 4.2
Texas State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.3  #68
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.6  #15
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.6  #117

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 597.13
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.61


UTSA Scoring
Offense: 35.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.7
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 33.7

UTSA's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Texas State 33
UTSA 30


Projected Total Points: 63
Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.3

Texas State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/06UTSA36Texas State43UTSA -4.5Texas State64.5Over
202409/07Texas State49UTSA10Texas State -2.5Texas State58.5Over
202309/09UTSA20Texas State13UT San Antonio -13.5Texas State66.5Under
202009/12Texas State48UTSA51Texas State -6.0UTSA56.5Over
201809/22UTSA25Texas State21UT San Antonio -7Texas State49.0Under
201709/23Texas State14UTSA44UT San Antonio -13.5UTSA45.0Over
201211/24UTSA38Texas State31
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas State244 Overs
UTSA522 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 31 - 51 - 40 - 1
Road Teams3 - 45 - 11 - 04 - 1

(#66) UTSA at (#47) TXST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUTSATXST
Game ControlGC #65 #22
Momentum ControlMC #56 #35
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #66 #47
SP+SP+ #64 #68
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #95 #85
Blue ChipsBC% #58 #58
UTSA Notes
(2/17) Vibes: OK, two 7-6 seasons but McCown back
(2/17) QB McCown back (3rd yr starter). Depth is ?
(2/17) New OC Rick Bowie (WKU) runs a fun offense
(2/17) RB good w Henderson + depth. High (Cal) nice +
(2/17) WR Amador/Wilson good start, have depth/portals
(2/17) OL 3 back from good unit, 3 portals w no exp
(2/17) DL 7 portals + 4 w PT exp. Has parts/promise
(2/17) DBs look ?, 4 portals at S, CB needs solid #2
UTSA Injury Report
Texas State Notes
(3/1) Vibes: Off should be great, can Def improve?
(3/1) New DC Will Windham (S Al's DC, awful LY)?
(3/1) QB Brad Jackson back, was good LY, very mobile
(3/1) RB Burrell back, but depth behind him has 0 car
(3/1) WR Sparks + Dawn both 1K LY, top G5 duo?
(3/1) OL has 2 starters, 3 portals and lots of ? beyond
(3/1) DL 6 portals, not much returns, not sure here
(3/1) DB 6 w starting exp, 6 portals, best Def unit
(3/1) LY won last 3 to bowl, Def awful in 5 gm L streak
Texas State Injury Report
UTSA on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
UTSA OffTXST Def
Game ControlGC #80 #28
Momentum ControlMC #20 #60
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #35 #61
ExplosiveExp #23 #110
PPAPPA #31 #76
PowerPwr #60 #50
SP+SP+ #27 #117
Pts POPPO #27 #98
HavocHav #80 #67
UTSA Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
UTSA OffTXST Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #47 #48
Run ExplRExp #6 #110
PPAExp #35 #58
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #94 #25
Stuff RateStuff #105 #10
TackleTak - NR
UTSA Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
UTSA OffTXST Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #21 #87
Pass ExplPExl #96 #97
PPAExp #43 #89
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #102 #25
DB HavocDB #55 #114
Texas State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatTXST OffUTSA Def
Game ControlGC #18 #47
Momentum ControlMC #16 #84
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #24 #46
ExplosiveExp #16 #126
PPAPPA #6 #82
PowerPwr #45 #70
SP+SP+ #15 #91
Pts POPPO #21 #115
HavocHav #15 #18
Texas State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
TXST OffUTSA Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #43 #44
Run ExplRExp #10 #73
PPAExp #7 #85
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #34 #62
Stuff RateStuff #36 #75
TackleTak - NR
Texas State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatTXST OffUTSA Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #25 #49
Pass ExplPExl #31 #131
PPAExp #17 #85
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #42 #20
DB HavocDB #10 #20
Program Comparison
TXST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Remains Top G5

UTSA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Texas State beat UTSA last year (43-36)
Texas State beat UTSA in 2024 (49-10)
UTSA beat Texas State in 2023 (20-13)

  
UTSA's OC Rick Bowie (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Owen McCown27640968%29903077.3
Brandon Tennison203459%199205.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Will Henderson III12586666.959
A'Marion Peterson4917733.614
Brandon High239814.322
Bryson Donnell208414.228
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
AJ Wilson30523417.477
David Amador4544349.845
Miles Campbell (Tr)21305214.552
DJ Allen2018939.543

View UTSA's Full Roster

UTSA's DC Jess Loepp (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Tucker Jr.353040
Owen Pewee284061
Marcellus Wilkerson273111
Jakevian Rodgers232004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah Baldwin (Tr)236444
James Walley Jr.196202
Timothy Huff Jr.31100
Marcellus Wilkerson273111
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jakevian Rodgers232004
Elijah Baldwin (Tr)236444
James Walley Jr.196202

TXST's OC Landon Keopple (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brad Jackson25135271%32232179.2
Shaker Reisig (Tr)101953%141127.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Brad Jackson174744174.363
Greg Burrell10067136.761
Jaylen Jenkins3117025.558
Torrance Burgess Jr.209514.811
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Beau Sparks8412001014.373
Chris Dawn Jr.651007415.582
Kylen Evans15211114.145
Greg Burrell1312509.623

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Will Windham (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ryan Nolan723022
Ayden Jones521020
Terrence Cooks II465121
Amarion Atwood292023
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Donterry Russell186401
Terrence Cooks II465121
Chancellor Owens (Tr)21100
DJ Jackson40000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dexter Ricks Jr. (Tr)181004
Amarion Atwood292023
Ryan Nolan723022