Home Field Advantage — ATS Analysis
League-wide home field advantage by season. Is home field dying? Is Vegas getting better at pricing it?
| Season | Games | Home Win % | Home ATS % | Avg Home Margin | Avg Margin vs Spread | Avg Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 798 | 62.4% | 48.6% | +7.34 | -0.70 | -8.04 |
| 2017 | 810 | 61.7% | 46.1% | +7.12 | -0.47 | -7.60 |
| 2018 | 804 | 63.6% | 47.8% | +7.48 | -0.51 | -7.99 |
| 2019 | 823 | 65.1% | 49.6% | +7.87 | +0.58 | -7.28 |
| 2020 | 532 | 59.0% | 48.8% | +3.65 | -0.93 | -4.59 |
| 2021 | 828 | 62.8% | 51.4% | +7.01 | -0.62 | -7.63 |
| 2022 | 830 | 63.4% | 49.9% | +7.83 | -0.35 | -8.18 |
| 2023 | 844 | 63.4% | 48.1% | +7.53 | -0.16 | -7.69 |
| 2024 | 824 | 64.1% | 51.6% | +8.68 | +1.06 | -7.62 |
| 2025 | 870 | 65.1% | 51.9% | +9.33 | +1.07 | -8.26 |
Methodology: Home field advantage measured by ATS (against the spread) performance.
The spread equalizes talent differences, so consistent outperformance = genuine home field edge.
Neutral-site games excluded. FCS opponents excluded.
ATS Cover % excludes pushes from the denominator.
Data: 2016–2025.