Toledo Composite Control — 2025 | Punt & Rally
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Toledo
2025 Composite Control — Game Control + Momentum Control
2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021
Composite Score
64
Composite Rank: #47  •  7–5 (FBS games)
GC Score
49.7
#69 in FBS
GC Net
-6.5
Raw GC Net
GC Off
22.7
SOS-Adj Offense
GC Allowed
29.2
Avg Allowed ↓
MC Score
78.2
#22 in FBS
MC Net
+0.35
Raw MC Net
MC Off
0.93
Adj. Sequences
MC Win%
87.5%
When winning MC
MC > GC by 29 points. Toledo generated strong consecutive scoring sequences (Momentum Control score: 78.2) but spent more time in contested win probability territory than their sequence count suggests (Game Control score: 49.7). This profile suggests a team that delivers explosive scoring runs but also plays in close, contested games.
Game Control Game-by-Game Win Probability Log
Wk Opponent Result GC Scores Avg WP% Ctrl% Never Trailed
GC Off GC Allowed GC Net
1 Kentucky A L 16–24 7.3 87.7 -80.5 18.2% 0% —
2 Western Kentucky H W 45–21 96.3 2.7 +93.6 93.3% 98.9% ✓
3 Morgan State H — 89.9 4.2 +85.8 89.6% 85.3% ✓
4 Western Michigan A L 13–14 51.9 17.5 +34.4 62.3% 48.2% —
5 Akron H W 45–3 98 2 +95.9 94.9% 100% ✓
7 Bowling Green A L 23–28 70.8 21 +49.8 69.5% 78.2% —
8 Kent State H W 45–10 53.2 26.5 +26.7 67.1% 48.3% —
9 Washington State A L 7–28 7.5 78.1 -70.6 18.7% 0% —
11 Northern Illinois H W 42–3 95.3 4.1 +91.2 89.8% 98.2% ✓
12 Miami (OH) A W 24–3 67.9 11 +56.9 73.6% 60.4% ✓
13 Ball State H W 38–9 93 3.6 +89.4 91% 94% ✓
14 Central Michigan A W 21–3 32.3 34.5 -2.1 49.8% 20.1% —
1 Louisville NPost L 22–27 9 86.6 -77.6 22.5% 0% —
7W / 12G ——— — — —
Momentum Control Game-by-Game Scoring Sequences Log
Wk Opponent Result Opponent-Adjusted Raw Edge Opp Wt
MC Off MC Def ↓ MC Net Off Def ↓
1 Kentucky A L 16–24 0 0 +0 0 0 Tied
1
2 Western Kentucky H W 45–21 1.24 0.62 +0.62 2 1 ✓ +2
0.62
4 Western Michigan A L 13–14 0.34 0 +0.34 1 0 ✓ +1
0.34
5 Akron H W 45–3 0.62 0 +0.62 3 0 ✓ +3
0.21
7 Bowling Green A L 23–28 0 0.07 -0.07 0 1 ✗ 0
0.07
8 Kent State H W 45–10 0.24 0.12 +0.12 2 1 ✓ +2
0.12
9 Washington State A L 7–28 0 1.11 -1.11 0 2 ✗ 0
0.55
11 Northern Illinois H W 42–3 0.32 0 +0.32 3 0 ✓ +3
0.11
12 Miami (OH) A W 24–3 0.83 0 +0.83 2 0 ✓ +2
0.41
13 Ball State H W 38–9 0.11 0 +0.11 1 0 ✓ +1
0.11
14 Central Michigan A W 21–3 0.47 0 +0.47 1 0 ✓ +1
0.47
1 Louisville APost L 22–27 1.92 1.92 +0 1 1 Tied
1
7W / 12G ——— 16 6 — —