Northern Illinois Composite Control — 2024 | Punt & Rally
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Northern Illinois
2024 Composite Control — Game Control + Momentum Control
2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021
Composite Score
71.7
Composite Rank: #19  •  7–5 (FBS games)
GC Score
58
#52 in FBS
GC Net
+3.4
Raw GC Net
GC Off
41.1
SOS-Adj Offense
GC Allowed
37.7
Avg Allowed ↓
MC Score
85.3
#3 in FBS
MC Net
+0.99
Raw MC Net
MC Off
1.31
Adj. Sequences
MC Win%
85.7%
When winning MC
MC > GC by 27 points. Northern Illinois generated strong consecutive scoring sequences (Momentum Control score: 85.3) but spent more time in contested win probability territory than their sequence count suggests (Game Control score: 58). This profile suggests a team that delivers explosive scoring runs but also plays in close, contested games.
Game Control Game-by-Game Win Probability Log
Wk Opponent Result GC Scores Avg WP% Ctrl% Never Trailed
GC Off GC Allowed GC Net
1 Western Illinois H — 88.2 5.7 +82.5 85.8% 82.4% ✓
2 Notre Dame A W 16–14 67.3 18.2 +49.1 75.9% 78.9% —
4 Buffalo H L 20–23 42.7 28.7 +13.9 51.9% 28% —
5 NC State A L 17–24 12.1 72.6 -60.5 30.2% 0% —
6 Massachusetts H W 34–20 37.5 37.5 0 49.5% 32.1% —
7 Bowling Green A W 17–7 39.5 32 +7.5 57.7% 29.4% —
8 Toledo H L 6–13 20 59.7 -39.6 32.4% 6.6% —
9 Ball State A L 23–25 13.8 63.5 -49.7 33.1% 0.6% —
11 Western Michigan A W 42–28 57.1 19.2 +37.9 68.9% 54% —
12 Akron H W 29–16 66.6 15.8 +50.8 67.5% 59.8% —
13 Miami (OH) A L 9–20 8.9 78.1 -69.3 22.2% 0% —
14 Central Michigan H W 24–16 79.8 11.4 +68.4 73.2% 76.6% ✓
1 Fresno State NPost W 28–20 17.9 47.6 -29.7 40.2% 3.3% —
7W / 12G ——— — — —
Momentum Control Game-by-Game Scoring Sequences Log
Wk Opponent Result Opponent-Adjusted Raw Edge Opp Wt
MC Off MC Def ↓ MC Net Off Def ↓
2 Notre Dame A W 16–14 6.64 0 +6.64 2 0 ✓ +2
1
4 Buffalo H L 20–23 0 0 +0 0 0 Tied
0.34
5 NC State A L 17–24 0.97 0 +0.97 1 0 ✓ +1
0.97
6 Massachusetts H W 34–20 0.42 0 +0.42 2 0 ✓ +2
0.21
7 Bowling Green A W 17–7 0.82 0 +0.82 1 0 ✓ +1
0.82
8 Toledo H L 6–13 0 0.47 -0.47 0 1 ✗ 0
0.47
9 Ball State A L 23–25 0 0.11 -0.11 0 2 ✗ 0
0.05
11 Western Michigan A W 42–28 0.86 0 +0.86 2 0 ✓ +2
0.43
12 Akron H W 29–16 0.13 0 +0.13 1 0 ✓ +1
0.13
13 Miami (OH) A L 9–20 0 1.57 -1.57 0 2 ✗ 0
0.78
14 Central Michigan H W 24–16 0.56 0.56 +0 2 2 Tied
0.28
1 Fresno State APost W 28–20 0.62 0 +0.62 1 0 ✓ +1
0.62
7W / 12G ——— 12 7 — —