What Wins Games, Beats the Spread & Hits the Total (CFB Research)

What Wins Games, Beats the Spread & Hits the Total (CFB Research)What Wins Games, Beats the Spread & Hits the Total (CFB Research) What Wins Games, Beats the Spread & Hits the Total

Last updated: Jan 19, 2026 7:30pm

Wins/spread sections compare games where the home team outperformed the opponent (home minus away > 0). Totals are game-level, so they are shown using the overall game environment (Top 25% vs Bottom 25%).

🏈 What Wins Games

When the home team won this “battle,” how often did it win the game?

Factor	Win %	Games
Big-Play Impact (Overall) Who created more value per play overall	85.2%	1,297
Big-Play Impact (Passing) Who created more value per pass	83.3%	1,274
Defensive Disruption Who created more chaos on defense	82.1%	1,271
Down-to-Down Efficiency Who stayed “on schedule” more often	79.4%	1,294
Finishing Drives Who turned trips past the 40 into points	77.2%	1,260
Efficiency on Passing Downs Who executed better in obvious passing situations	74.6%	1,229
Efficiency on Standard Downs Who stayed on schedule before passing downs	74.6%	1,273
Big-Play Impact (Rushing) Who created more value per run	70.8%	1,228
Line Yards (Run Blocking) Who got more push up front	67.4%	1,170

Big-Play Impact (Overall)

Uses CFBD Predicted Points Added (PPA), similar to EPA. Adjusted for situation and field position.

85.2% Win rate

1,297 Games used

Seasons 2023–2025, min plays 40

61.1% Cover rate

1,264 ATS games used

Requires a spread line

Big-Play Impact (Passing)

Passing PPA differential (home minus away). Explosive passing creates fast scoring swings.

83.3% Win rate

1,274 Games used

Seasons 2023–2025, min plays 40

62.2% Cover rate

1,241 ATS games used

Requires a spread line

Defensive Disruption

Havoc differential (TFLs, forced fumbles, INTs, PBUs).

82.1% Win rate

1,271 Games used

Seasons 2023–2025, min plays 40

59.5% Cover rate

1,240 ATS games used

Requires a spread line

Down-to-Down Efficiency

Success Rate differential (home minus away). Sustained efficiency is strongly tied to winning.

79.4% Win rate

1,294 Games used

Seasons 2023–2025, min plays 40

54.8% Cover rate

1,260 ATS games used

Requires a spread line

Finishing Drives

Points per scoring opportunity (drives crossing opponent’s 40). Captures high-leverage execution.

77.2% Win rate

1,260 Games used

Seasons 2023–2025, min plays 40

60.2% Cover rate

1,229 ATS games used

Requires a spread line

Efficiency on Passing Downs

Success Rate differential on passing downs (2nd & 7+ / 3rd-4th & 5+).

74.6% Win rate

1,229 Games used

Seasons 2023–2025, min plays 40

55.7% Cover rate

1,193 ATS games used

Requires a spread line

Efficiency on Standard Downs

Success Rate differential on standard downs (non-passing downs).

74.6% Win rate

1,273 Games used

Seasons 2023–2025, min plays 40

52.2% Cover rate

1,238 ATS games used

Requires a spread line

Big-Play Impact (Rushing)

Rushing PPA differential (home minus away).

70.8% Win rate

1,228 Games used

Seasons 2023–2025, min plays 40

51.5% Cover rate

1,203 ATS games used

Requires a spread line

Line Yards (Run Blocking)

Line yards estimates rushing yards attributable to the offensive line using weighted yardage.

67.4% Win rate

1,170 Games used

Seasons 2023–2025, min plays 40

47.3% Cover rate

1,145 ATS games used

Requires a spread line

💰 What Beats the Spread

When the home team won this “battle,” how often did it cover? Splits shown for favorites vs underdogs and 7+ point underdogs.

Factor	Cover %	Fav	Dog	Dog 7+	Games
Big-Play Impact (Passing) Who created more value per pass	62.2%	56.7%	79.4%	84.1%	1,241
Big-Play Impact (Overall) Who created more value per play overall	61.1%	54.3%	87.6%	93.8%	1,264
Finishing Drives Who turned trips past the 40 into points	60.2%	54.7%	75.0%	78.3%	1,229
Defensive Disruption Who created more chaos on defense	59.5%	53.0%	80.4%	86.1%	1,240
Efficiency on Passing Downs Who executed better in obvious passing situations	55.7%	51.6%	67.1%	70.3%	1,193
Down-to-Down Efficiency Who stayed “on schedule” more often	54.8%	49.5%	77.6%	80.3%	1,260
Efficiency on Standard Downs Who stayed on schedule before passing downs	52.2%	46.9%	71.3%	70.9%	1,238
Big-Play Impact (Rushing) Who created more value per run	51.5%	46.6%	65.9%	68.6%	1,203
Line Yards (Run Blocking) Who got more push up front	47.3%	43.7%	58.3%	60.4%	1,145

Big-Play Impact (Passing) watch this one

Passing PPA differential (home minus away). Explosive passing creates fast scoring swings.

62.2% Cover rate (all)

56.7% Favorites

spread < 0

79.4% Underdogs

spread > 0

84.1% Dogs 7+

spread ≥ 7

Games used: 1,241 (all) / 940 (fav) / 301 (dog) / 113 (dog 7+)

Big-Play Impact (Overall)

Uses CFBD Predicted Points Added (PPA), similar to EPA. Adjusted for situation and field position.

61.1% Cover rate (all)

54.3% Favorites

spread < 0

87.6% Underdogs

spread > 0

93.8% Dogs 7+

spread ≥ 7

Games used: 1,264 (all) / 1,006 (fav) / 258 (dog) / 81 (dog 7+)

Finishing Drives

Points per scoring opportunity (drives crossing opponent’s 40). Captures high-leverage execution.

60.2% Cover rate (all)

54.7% Favorites

spread < 0

75.0% Underdogs

spread > 0

78.3% Dogs 7+

spread ≥ 7

Games used: 1,229 (all) / 897 (fav) / 332 (dog) / 138 (dog 7+)

Defensive Disruption

Havoc differential (TFLs, forced fumbles, INTs, PBUs).

59.5% Cover rate (all)

53.0% Favorites

spread < 0

80.4% Underdogs

spread > 0

86.1% Dogs 7+

spread ≥ 7

Games used: 1,240 (all) / 944 (fav) / 296 (dog) / 101 (dog 7+)

Efficiency on Passing Downs

Success Rate differential on passing downs (2nd & 7+ / 3rd-4th & 5+).

55.7% Cover rate (all)

51.6% Favorites

spread < 0

67.1% Underdogs

spread > 0

70.3% Dogs 7+

spread ≥ 7

Games used: 1,193 (all) / 880 (fav) / 313 (dog) / 128 (dog 7+)

Down-to-Down Efficiency

Success Rate differential (home minus away). Sustained efficiency is strongly tied to winning.

54.8% Cover rate (all)

49.5% Favorites

spread < 0

77.6% Underdogs

spread > 0

80.3% Dogs 7+

spread ≥ 7

Games used: 1,260 (all) / 1,019 (fav) / 241 (dog) / 81 (dog 7+)

Efficiency on Standard Downs

Success Rate differential on standard downs (non-passing downs).

52.2% Cover rate (all)

46.9% Favorites

spread < 0

71.3% Underdogs

spread > 0

70.9% Dogs 7+

spread ≥ 7

Games used: 1,238 (all) / 970 (fav) / 268 (dog) / 103 (dog 7+)

Big-Play Impact (Rushing)

Rushing PPA differential (home minus away).

51.5% Cover rate (all)

46.6% Favorites

spread < 0

65.9% Underdogs

spread > 0

68.6% Dogs 7+

spread ≥ 7

Games used: 1,203 (all) / 901 (fav) / 302 (dog) / 124 (dog 7+)

Line Yards (Run Blocking)

Line yards estimates rushing yards attributable to the offensive line using weighted yardage.

47.3% Cover rate (all)

43.7% Favorites

spread < 0

58.3% Underdogs

spread > 0

60.4% Dogs 7+

spread ≥ 7

Games used: 1,145 (all) / 860 (fav) / 285 (dog) / 111 (dog 7+)

🎯 What Hits the Total

Totals are a game-level outcome. Each row compares games in the Top 25% vs Bottom 25% of that metric. (Pushes are excluded automatically.)

Game Environment Metric	Over% (Top 25%)	Under% (Top 25%)	Games	Over% (Bottom 25%)	Under% (Bottom 25%)	Games
Combined Big-Play Impact (PPA rate) Adds both teams’ overall PPA (rate). A high combined efficiency/explosiveness environment tends to go Over. Bottom 25% range: -0.593 to 0.158 \| Top 25% range: 0.522 to 1.524	80.5%	19.5%	558	19.1%	80.9%	559
Combined Big-Play Impact (PPA weighted by plays) Approximates total game impact: (home PPA × home plays) + (away PPA × away plays). Bottom 25% range: -40.129 to 10.663 \| Top 25% range: 32.473 to 92.013	81.5%	18.5%	558	19.3%	80.7%	559
Combined Scoring Opportunities Total number of drives crossing the opponent 40 (both teams). More chances = more points. Bottom 25% range: 4.000 to 10.000 \| Top 25% range: 13.000 to 25.000	68.3%	31.7%	558	25.8%	74.2%	559
Combined Explosiveness Adds both teams’ explosiveness. Explosive games are more likely to spike totals. Bottom 25% range: 1.440 to 2.310 \| Top 25% range: 2.800 to 3.970	68.1%	31.9%	558	26.1%	73.9%	559
Combined Efficiency (Success Rate) Adds both teams’ success rate. Efficient offenses sustain drives and scoring chances. Bottom 25% range: 0.450 to 0.753 \| Top 25% range: 0.918 to 1.235	67.6%	32.4%	558	25.8%	74.2%	559
Pace (Total Plays) More plays = more chances to score (home plays + away plays). Bottom 25% range: 80.000 to 118.000 \| Top 25% range: 138.000 to 256.000	56.3%	43.7%	558	46.3%	53.7%	559

Interpretation tip: totals are often driven by combined efficiency/explosiveness, plus scoring opportunities. This is descriptive (postgame) validation — pregame prediction requires season-to-date, opponent-adjusted ratings.

📘 Definitions (Plain English)

Quick glossary for the terms used on this page.

PPA (Predicted Points Added): Similar to EPA. Measures play value using down, distance, and field position.
Success Rate: % of plays that stay “on schedule” (50% yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th, or a TD).
Passing Downs: 2nd & 7+ to go, or 3rd/4th & 5+ to go.
Standard Downs: All downs that are not passing downs.
Scoring Opportunities: Drives that cross the opponent’s 40-yard line.
Points per Opportunity: Points scored per scoring opportunity (drive past the 40).
Havoc: % of plays with a TFL, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Line Yards: Rushing yards attributable to the offensive line using weighted yardage (losses count extra, big runs count less).
“Won the battle”: For wins/spread, this page uses (home stat − away stat) > 0.
Top 25% vs Bottom 25%: For totals, games are split into quartiles by the metric and we compare the extremes.